The United States Grand Prix in Austin will likely mark the crucial turning point in the fight for the Drivers’ Championship. After three races without a win, McLaren must deliver a strong response; otherwise, the internal balance could shift, creating new opportunities for their rivals.
Has McLaren stalled? That question will dominate the conversation until the Austin weekend, and rightly so, considering that in the first fifteen races of the season, the reigning world champion team secured twelve victories. At the Dutch Grand Prix, which marked the return from the summer break, McLaren’s superiority was overwhelming. The final result did not truly reflect the performance on track, as the dominance of the two MCL39s was twice erased by the safety car, which nullified the advantage that Oscar Piastri had built up over Max Verstappen in the first 22 laps – an impressive eighteen seconds, plus another twelve between laps 27 and 52.
Since August 31, the date of the Zandvoort race, that dominant McLaren has disappeared. There have been flashes of strong race pace, like in Singapore, but the superiority that characterized the first two-thirds of the season vanished in the following three rounds. There may be multiple reasons, and it’s likely that more than one factor explains why neither Piastri nor Lando Norris managed to add to their win tally at Monza, Baku, or Singapore. The key question is whether the recent shift in performance is due to progress made by rivals like Red Bull and Mercedes or a genuine loss of pace from McLaren.
The first element to examine is the type of circuits where the MCL39 has shown vulnerability. Both in Italy and Azerbaijan, aerodynamic load plays a less significant role, and tire wear – arguably McLaren’s greatest strength in 2025 – is barely a factor. Monza and Baku lack medium- and low-speed corners (another McLaren strength) and the fast sweepers where overall balance makes the biggest difference. The main anomaly came in Singapore. “We’ll have to understand why we were so strong,” commented George Russell at the end of the weekend, highlighting how even Mercedes was surprised by its performance at Marina Bay. McLaren was expected to dominate, yet only Norris reached the podium, finishing third. The night race was held in cooler-than-expected conditions (track temperature stayed below 38°C), and setup choices proved challenging throughout the weekend.
The newly resurfaced track also played a role. Teams struggled with front-end balance, trying to find the ideal compromise to avoid instability at the rear – far from ideal on a traction-dependent circuit. Mercedes executed everything to perfection, Red Bull came very close, while McLaren may not have found the perfect setup. As usual at Marina Bay, qualifying was crucial: starting behind rivals in a race with few strategy options and almost no overtaking chances (the performance gap required to gain a position was nearly two seconds per lap) meant recovery was practically impossible.
According to Andrea Stella, two elements have negatively affected performance in the last three races. “We saw it in Montreal and had confirmation at Baku and Marina Bay,” he explained. “When there are heavy braking zones, when we face bumpy tarmac or kerbs, we’re not the best car. From a technical point of view, it’s not a total surprise. When braking and traction are key, we struggle more, and on circuits where a low-downforce setup is needed, these factors combine.”
The McLaren team principal then touched on another factor that could spice up the end of the season. “We stopped developing the car some time ago because we’ve been fully focused on the 2026 car, while some of our rivals have continued bringing new updates to the track. Red Bull is definitely one of them. They introduced a new front wing in Singapore and a new floor at Monza.”
Regarding Red Bull, there’s also another element that helped them unlock more potential from their car. Helmut Marko has repeatedly mentioned changes in how the team defines its base setup each weekend, associating Laurent Mekies’ role with a shift that quickly brought concrete results. Combined with the latest upgrades, the RB21 has come to life, now running lower to the ground and gaining all the related advantages.
Within this context, the Austin round takes on great significance for McLaren. It might sound paradoxical since the team has just celebrated its second consecutive Constructors’ Championship, but in Formula 1, standing still means falling behind. The race at the Circuit of the Americas will be a true test for the papaya team — perhaps without specific targets to achieve, but crucial to understanding the true competitive order heading into the final stretch of the season. The advantage with which Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris approach the last six rounds is considerable, but if they lose the confidence of having the best car on the grid, changes within the team — starting with internal dynamics — cannot be ruled out.
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