The McLaren MCL39 is no longer the dominant force it once was in Formula 1 — that much is now clear. In a season marked by overall balance and competitive parity, it’s only natural for a car to experience phases of higher and lower performance. However, McLaren’s last win dates back to the Dutch Grand Prix, where Lando Norris took victory. So the question is simple: what exactly is going on?
The British team’s development plan
There are several reasons why the papaya-colored cars have lost the early-season edge that once made them unstoppable. Much of it comes down to the natural development curve of a Formula 1 car — every project eventually reaches a plateau. Beyond a certain point, it becomes increasingly difficult to extract more performance with the available budget, especially with the major 2026 regulation changes now on the horizon.
Next season represents an unknown for everyone, and it’s crucial to start investing significant resources into the future project. As the championship progresses, a growing percentage of personnel shifts focus toward next year’s car. Up until the summer break, when the MCL39 was still dominant and the battle appeared to be an internal one between its two drivers, it made sense for McLaren to begin diverting attention to the following year’s design.
But recently, Red Bull has become the most competitive car on the grid. The Austrian team has clearly interpreted its machine better than anyone else, and that’s allowed it to extract more performance. Through a series of targeted updates — many of which have been analyzed in detail — Red Bull has managed to correct specific weaknesses in the RB21, bringing it noticeably closer to McLaren.
The small details that make the difference between Red Bull and McLaren
The “drop in performance” of the British car is therefore partly due to the progressive improvement of its rivals, combined with the natural plateau in McLaren’s own development. In recent Grands Prix, the RB21 has proven to be the most versatile car — and even when it didn’t have the outright fastest pace, it often maximized its results. The performance gap between the two cars is now extremely fine, meaning every detail carries extra weight.
Max Verstappen has consistently made the difference, displaying exceptional skill in extracting every ounce of potential in key moments — particularly during the decisive laps in qualifying. Take Austin, for example: when looking at the ideal lap times, Lando Norris could have secured pole position had he managed to combine his best sector splits. But that didn’t happen, and the British driver lost a golden opportunity to start from the front. Had he done so, he likely would have gone on to win the race.
This is certainly a key factor, but there are also deeper technical reasons behind McLaren’s current form. Since the Dutch Grand Prix, Formula 1 has visited circuits with very different characteristics. Initially, the general consensus was that Red Bull excelled mainly on low-downforce tracks such as Monza and, to some extent, Baku. However, that theory has since proven to be incomplete. In both Italy and Azerbaijan, tire degradation during the races was remarkably low — an element that played into Red Bull’s hands.
MCL39: a real performance drop, but only up to a point
Even Pirelli admitted being surprised by the minimal degradation seen at Monza. This phenomenon largely stems from the fact that teams have now mastered how to significantly reduce tire wear. Earlier in the season, one of the key differences between the MCL39 and the RB21 lay in tire management — with the Austrian car typically struggling more when degradation came into play.
This is arguably the most important factor currently helping Red Bull close the gap to McLaren. The MCL39’s main strength had been its exceptional tire management, far superior to that of its rivals. In the first few Grands Prix, Red Bull openly acknowledged this weakness and set clear goals to improve it through various stages of development.
Much credit goes to Max Verstappen’s team, but at the same time, the recent circuits have generally featured lower tire wear, reducing the MCL39’s traditional advantage. Ultimately, this trend combines with several other elements that together explain what many perceive as a pure performance decline from McLaren. In reality, it’s a complex blend of development priorities, evolving rivals, and track-specific conditions that have reshuffled the competitive order at the top of Formula 1.
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