Juan Pablo Montoya doubts that Max Verstappen is genuinely preparing to leave Red Bull, arguing that the Dutchman already enjoys an undisputed number-one position at Milton Keynes that would be much harder to secure at Mercedes or McLaren. According to the former Formula 1 driver, the ongoing negotiations surrounding Max Verstappen’s future may ultimately be as much about money as finding a different team.
Red Bull’s lack of victories has nevertheless ensured that questions over Max Verstappen’s future remain one of the major talking points of the 2026 season. Lando Norris and McLaren claimed their first win of the year in Hungary, ending the sequence of Mercedes and Ferrari victories and leaving Red Bull as the only established front-running team yet to win a Grand Prix this season.
Juan Pablo Montoya questions Max Verstappen’s Red Bull exit talk
Red Bull’s performance remains the biggest uncertainty surrounding Max Verstappen’s future. The four-time world champion has not seriously challenged for a Grand Prix victory during the first half of 2026, while Mercedes, Ferrari and now McLaren have all demonstrated winning potential.
That competitive situation has fuelled continued speculation over whether Max Verstappen could eventually seek a move elsewhere. The wider 2027 Formula 1 driver market has already generated several possible scenarios involving Mercedes and McLaren, but Juan Pablo Montoya remains unconvinced that the Dutchman truly wants to leave Red Bull.
“It’s always about money,” Juan Pablo Montoya told Betpack. “Is Max Verstappen talking to other teams to push up the price, or does he genuinely want to leave? I think that, ultimately, what matters is being the undisputed number one within the team.”
Why Montoya would avoid Mercedes and McLaren
For Juan Pablo Montoya, a potential move to Mercedes would immediately place Max Verstappen into a very different internal dynamic. Kimi Antonelli is currently leading the championship and has become a central figure in Mercedes’ long-term plans under Toto Wolff.
“I wouldn’t go to Mercedes and try to become king of a jungle where Kimi Antonelli is Toto Wolff’s favourite, and at the same time I wouldn’t go to McLaren, where the relationship between Zak Brown and Lando Norris is very strong,” Juan Pablo Montoya explained.
“Toto Wolff wouldn’t sacrifice Kimi Antonelli for Max Verstappen. He would be very happy to have them both and he would also be able to manage them, but I don’t know whether Max Verstappen is willing to put himself on the line to that extent.”
The prospect of a Mercedes move has remained part of the conversation around the Dutchman, with Max Verstappen and Toto Wolff’s summer contact reigniting speculation. Yet Montoya believes giving up the status Verstappen already enjoys at Red Bull would represent a significant gamble.
Montoya points to Sergio Perez’s Red Bull experience
Juan Pablo Montoya also drew a comparison with Sergio Perez’s experience alongside Max Verstappen during the 2022 season. The Colombian recalled how competitive Perez appeared early in the campaign before Red Bull’s development direction increasingly favoured Verstappen’s performance.
“Remember when Sergio Perez was very combative, even in his comments at the beginning of 2022?” Juan Pablo Montoya added. “Then the upgrades arrived, Max Verstappen was flying and Checo got worse race after race.”
The example reinforces Montoya’s view that Verstappen’s position within Red Bull carries considerable value. Even during a difficult season, the entire structure remains familiar to him and he does not have to establish himself against another team’s existing reference driver.
Could McLaren change Max Verstappen’s thinking?
Montoya does not expect Mercedes to have a realistic opening for Max Verstappen over the next few seasons. He does, however, identify one scenario that could alter the picture: a sustained run of McLaren victories when Formula 1 returns from the summer break.
“Honestly, I don’t think there will actually be room at Mercedes for Max Verstappen over the next few seasons,” Juan Pablo Montoya said. “The only factor that could come into play would be a run of McLaren victories after the summer break.”
“At that point, Max Verstappen could genuinely think about trying to play the McLaren card.”
That possibility has become more interesting after McLaren’s breakthrough in Hungary. The team’s development programme has gathered momentum, with McLaren now being viewed as a major second-half threat to Mercedes after Lando Norris’s Budapest victory.
For now, however, Juan Pablo Montoya believes staying with Red Bull remains the most natural option for Max Verstappen. Moving elsewhere would not simply require confidence in a faster car; it would also mean surrendering the unrivalled status he currently enjoys and taking on Kimi Antonelli or Lando Norris on their own territory.
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