Johnny Herbert believes McLaren and Lando Norris, rather than Ferrari or Max Verstappen, will represent the biggest threat to Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes during the second half of the 2026 Formula 1 season. The former F1 driver was particularly impressed by McLaren’s progress before the summer break and believes the Woking team is now in an excellent position to increase the pressure in the title fight.
Mercedes still leads the championship through Kimi Antonelli, but the competitive picture has tightened considerably. Ferrari is preparing further power-unit development, while McLaren made a significant step forward in Hungary and has more upgrades planned for the opening races after the break.
Johnny Herbert names McLaren as Mercedes’ biggest threat
Ferrari is planning to introduce its ADUO-2 development after the summer break. The Maranello power unit is expected to receive a larger turbo as part of the programme, bringing its characteristics more closely into line with those of rival engines.
Ferrari has maintained a particularly active development programme throughout the year, following a race-by-race approach to improving the SF-26. However, Johnny Herbert does not currently see Ferrari as the most dangerous challenger to Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes.
Nor does he identify Max Verstappen as their main concern. Instead, Johnny Herbert believes McLaren has the greatest potential to disrupt the current championship order.
McLaren’s Hungary progress changes the 2026 title picture
McLaren finally made a significant breakthrough at the Hungarian Grand Prix, where its latest developments substantially improved the MCL40’s competitiveness. The scale of those changes even surprised Mercedes during the Hungary weekend.
The Woking team’s development work is not finished. McLaren plans to continue completing its upgrade package across Zandvoort and Baku, building on the progress made before the summer shutdown. The team’s development programme behind its Hungary breakthrough has therefore raised expectations for the second half of the championship.
According to Johnny Herbert, that trajectory makes McLaren the team Mercedes should be watching most closely.
“If I were in Kimi Antonelli’s and Mercedes’ shoes, my biggest concern right now would be McLaren,” Johnny Herbert told Casinostugan. “Going into the break, they seem to have made the most significant progress and right now they appear to be in a really good position.”
Lando Norris backed to put Kimi Antonelli under pressure
Lando Norris is central to Johnny Herbert’s prediction. The McLaren driver remains part of the battle near the front of the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship, and further gains from the MCL40 could give him the opportunity to place more sustained pressure on Kimi Antonelli.
“It would be fantastic to see McLaren back in contention for the Drivers’ Championship with Lando Norris,” Johnny Herbert added. “In that case, we would see how Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes handle the pressure. There could be another twist in this season.”
The next test comes at Zandvoort, where Formula 1 resumes after the summer break. McLaren’s planned developments will offer an early indication of whether its Hungarian progress can be maintained, with the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix weekend beginning a crucial phase of the championship.
Ferrari and Max Verstappen remain significant factors in the battle at the front, but Johnny Herbert expects McLaren to pose the most immediate danger. If Lando Norris can combine the team’s improving MCL40 with consistent results, the pressure on Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes could increase considerably once racing resumes.
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