According to 1997 Formula 1 World Champion Jacques Villeneuve, Dutch driver Max Verstappen should carefully consider his options before deciding to join the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team—especially if the decision is based solely on the assumption that the 2026 regulation changes will give Mercedes another dominant era, similar to what happened in 2014.
The Mercedes-Verstappen negotiations
It is no longer a secret that Max Verstappen and Mercedes have been circling each other for quite some time—many months, if not years. Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff has publicly stated on multiple occasions that the team missed out on signing a young Max Verstappen back in 2014, when he ultimately chose Red Bull Racing. At the time, advisor Helmut Marko was able to offer him a guaranteed Formula 1 debut as early as the 2015 season, which tipped the scales in Red Bull’s favor.
It has also been confirmed—by Wolff himself—that there have been multiple contacts between Mercedes and Max Verstappen’s management team, not just in past seasons but also during the current 2025 Formula 1 championship.
The arguments in favor of Mercedes and Red Bull
On one side, Mercedes offers a very appealing prospect in the form of their future 2026 power unit. According to various insider sources and ‘paddock radio’ speculation, the next-generation Mercedes engine is expected to be the most powerful and competitive in the field. The German manufacturer hopes to usher in a new era of dominance similar to the one they began in 2014 with the introduction of hybrid power units, which resulted in eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships.
On the other side of the equation is Oracle Red Bull Racing, which—mysterious release clauses aside—is still eager to retain Max Verstappen for the long term. The current reigning World Champion has a contract that binds him to the Milton Keynes-based team until the end of the 2028 season, and Red Bull is doing all it can to ensure he honors it.
However, the biggest question mark revolves around Red Bull’s new engine project. Red Bull Powertrains, in partnership with Ford Motor Company, is developing its own power unit for 2026 and beyond. This new collaboration poses a significant technical challenge, particularly because neither Red Bull nor Ford has direct experience building hybrid power units to Formula 1 standards. The current power units branded as Red Bull Powertrains (RBPT) are essentially still the same engines originally developed by Honda in previous years. Therefore, the shift to a fully in-house engine project introduces a level of risk and uncertainty that could impact the team’s performance from 2026 onward.
Jacques Villeneuve cautions Verstappen
Speaking to the Dutch broadcaster Viaplay during the 2025 British Grand Prix weekend at Silverstone, Jacques Villeneuve offered a word of caution to Max Verstappen. The Canadian former World Champion believes that jumping to Mercedes in anticipation of a new dominant era might not be as straightforward or risk-free as some suggest.
“It’s a complicated situation,” Jacques Villeneuve explained. “When Lewis Hamilton moved to Mercedes back in the day, everyone laughed. People were saying, ‘What is he doing? He was already in the best team, and now he’s going to Mercedes.’ But in that case, it turned out to be a very smart move.”
Villeneuve continued: “Now a lot of people are thinking that because of the engine regulation changes coming next year in 2026, Mercedes will have an advantage—just like they did at the beginning of the hybrid era. But that doesn’t mean history will repeat itself. That’s just what people think right now.”
His point underscores the unpredictability of Formula 1 during major regulation changes. While Mercedes was indeed the team to beat in 2014 thanks to its early mastery of hybrid technology, there’s no guarantee they will be able to replicate that same level of success in 2026. Many variables—technical, operational, and even strategic—could impact how competitive each team will be under the new rules.
As speculation intensifies regarding Max Verstappen’s future in Formula 1, the reigning World Champion will need to weigh several key factors: Red Bull’s uncertain engine project, Mercedes’ historical strength during rule transitions, and the risk of leaving a winning environment too soon. For now, both teams continue their push behind the scenes, but Jacques Villeneuve’s warning serves as a timely reminder that in Formula 1, past success is no guarantee of future dominance.
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