Marcin Budkowski, the former Executive Director of Alpine, has issued a stark warning to Red Bull Racing regarding the 2026 season: Max Verstappen will not hesitate to look elsewhere if the car is not competitive. Despite being under contract until 2028, the Dutchman could potentially exit the Milton Keynes squad as early as the end of 2026 if he is not provided with a machine capable of maintaining his winning streak.
According to Budkowski, the upcoming season will present a “window of opportunity” for the four-time World Champion. While many teams would jump at the chance to sign him, and despite his long-standing loyalty to the Austrian outfit, Verstappen’s primary motivation remains winning. While various internal factors might influence a decision to leave, the outright competitiveness of the car will undoubtedly carry the most weight.
Red Bull has navigated a year of seismic shifts in 2025, marked by the departure of Christian Horner and the subsequent retirement of Helmut Marko. These two figures were the pillars of the team’s success and have now been replaced. Marko’s exit is particularly significant, as Verstappen had previously suggested he might leave the team if the Austrian consultant were forced out during the power struggles that followed the passing of co-founder Dietrich Mateschitz.
As the 2026 season represents a total technical reset for the entire grid, it is mission-critical for the Milton Keynes team to produce a front-running car to convince their star driver to stay.
Budkowski’s analysis: The engine risk
The next season marks the beginning of a daunting new era for Red Bull, as they will become an F1 engine manufacturer for the first time in their history. This transition carries an inherent risk that could jeopardize the team’s initial competitiveness under the new regulations. Marcin Budkowski believes this uncertainty is exactly why Verstappen would consider a move.
“I think [Marko’s exit] creates a window of opportunity for him, because [Max Verstappen] has potential reasons to leave,” the former Alpine boss stated. “But let’s be honest, it all comes down to the competitiveness of the car and the team. And obviously the engine, as part of the car.”
“If Red Bull produces a dominant car next year and looks destined for another era of dominance, then Max will think twice before leaving. I think his relationship with Laurent [Mekies] is good.”
“I don’t think he is happy to see Helmut leave, but I am sure he was informed about it. I have no idea what his views are. Fortunately, the decision was made after the last race of the season, so there are no news cycles or press conferences to find out,” Marcin Budkowski continued.
A volatile 2026 driver market
There are countless unknowns surrounding the first season of the new Power Unit regulations, and the hierarchy on the grid is unlikely to be settled at the first race. With many high-profile drivers reaching the end of their contracts in late 2026, the entire paddock will be watching to see which teams have mastered the new formula before deciding where to commit for 2027.
Budkowski predicts an incredibly active driver market, especially if certain teams struggle with underperforming power units—a factor that will be a major focal point for Red Bull Ford.
“The reality is that next year will be a very, very important year for the driver market,” explained the Polish engineer. “Many will be looking at which cars are successful, who is doing well and who is not, and especially the engines.”
“Because, as you all know, it’s easy to copy a car during the season, or for the following one, and at least recover part of the aerodynamic deficit. With engines, it’s much harder to do that. It will take much more time and the regulations offer much less freedom. So I think it will be very, very interesting to see.”
“I think there is a window of opportunity for Max to leave. I believe there is a good chance he goes, but it won’t happen if Red Bull produces a dominant car,” he concluded.
The 2026 Formula 1 season represents more than just a technical reset; it is a high-stakes crossroads for the partnership between Max Verstappen and Red Bull. While the “Marko era” has come to an end, the Dutchman’s future likely won’t be decided by sentiment or past loyalty, but by the raw horsepower and aerodynamic efficiency of the new machine. If the Milton Keynes squad can prove their new engine is a winner, the “window of opportunity” for a rival to snatch away the world champion may well remain firmly shut.
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