There’s an invisible thread linking Toto Wolff to Max Verstappen. The two have never worn the same team colors, but Toto Wolff played a key role in the story that led to Max Verstappen being offered a full-time Formula 1 seat at just sixteen. In June 2014, an all-out bidding war broke out to secure young Verstappen, with Toto Wolff and Helmut Marko pushing their offers far beyond initial expectations. It ended in an unforeseen twist: Marko went all in by offering Max a full-time seat at Toro Rosso. Many thought it was madness, and Wolff had to concede.
Seven years later, that same driver who once stood at Brackley’s doorstep played the lead role in the drama that denied Lewis Hamilton what would have been his eighth world title—and his seventh with Mercedes. Wolff knew that without Max, Red Bull wouldn’t have stood a chance at stealing that title, only deepening the regret over what might have been.
Now, ten years after the 2014 bidding war, Red Bull has faced the shockwaves of the Horner case. As the walls trembled in Milton Keynes, Toto Wolff didn’t hesitate to pour fuel on the fire, hoping he might finally get his hands on Max. Fresh off the shock of Hamilton’s departure, Toto could have landed a major blow by signing Max Verstappen—but once again, it didn’t happen.
Despite a management crisis like no other, Red Bull still managed in 2024 to give Max Verstappen the tools to win his fourth world title. For Max, there was no point in switching to a Mercedes far from being a championship contender—a prediction confirmed by the early part of this season.
Now it’s spring 2025. Red Bull, barring big surprises, is no longer a title-winning car. And crucially, doubts loom over the long-term competitiveness of its new power unit debuting next year. It’s logical to assume that Max and his management have been looking around—“flirting” is a daily affair in the paddock—but the door at Brackley apparently isn’t as wide open as it once was.
Russell’s future will reveal (almost) everything
Mercedes is highly optimistic about its 2026 project, especially about the quality of its new power unit. Toto Wolff’s firm opposition to Christian Horner’s proposals to revise the current regulations (regarding the electric/thermal power ratio) suggests strong confidence from Brixworth, where Mercedes engines are developed and built.
In this context comes the figure of George Russell, promoted to lead driver after Hamilton’s exit and proving in this first part of the season to be more than up to the task. So why hasn’t the renewal come yet? Mercedes has a clear answer: internally, the timelines have long been defined, and while the outside world waits for an announcement, no one on the team ever mentioned a deadline—everything is going according to plan.
It’s true that in 2023, the Hamilton/Russell extension was announced on August 31, so it wouldn’t be unusual for Mercedes to wait until the summer break to finalize the agreement. Some also point out that Mercedes manages George Russell’s career directly, which certainly simplifies negotiations—but George’s opinion, even with one less filter, remains a key part of the process.
Compared to two years ago, the only real variable is Verstappen’s availability, and that alone is enough to invite speculation. A Mercedes-Verstappen lineup could offer major benefits to both sides—but there are also clear downsides.
Above all is the philosophy long embraced by Wolff and Mercedes: identifying, developing, and promoting young drivers from their internal Academy to the top team—a path followed by both George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Bringing in Max Verstappen would contradict a decade’s worth of investment in youth development, partly invalidating the program itself.
The 2026 car will be a turning point
There’s also the financial aspect. Max is currently the highest-paid driver in F1; Forbes estimated his 2024 earnings at $75 million—$60 million in salary and $15 million in bonuses. It’s unlikely Max Verstappen would move for less. In fact, such a move would likely come with a pay bump.
Given the current state of the automotive world—not exactly booming—it might not be the best PR move for Mercedes to announce the signing of a driver who will cost at least $150 million over two years. Technically, Daimler owns only 33% of the F1 team, but who really highlights that? At the end of the day, it’s still the Mercedes name on the line, and the message would be clear.
It’s very likely that a union that might have happened instantly in another time will once again be postponed—perhaps forever, or perhaps not. Much will depend on how competitive the Mercedes-AMG W17 proves to be, the car set to debut next season.
The dream of Wolff and everyone at Brackley is to repeat what began in 2014: total dominance. If that’s the case, then the team spirit will be key, and the George Russell–Antonelli pairing offers more stability than any alternative. But if the field remains tightly contested—and especially if Red Bull and Verstappen are somehow still in the fight—then maybe, just maybe, that old regret and that familiar temptation will return.
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