The 2025 season could be decisive for Tsunoda, who is already at a crossroads at the start of the year. After failing to convince Red Bull to promote him at the end of last season in place of Sergio Perez—who was preferred due to Liam Lawson’s stronger mental resilience and long-term potential—the Japanese driver is now also exploring his options.
It is no secret that, as he himself has admitted, he is still hoping for a move to the main Red Bull team during the season or in 2026. However, with young talents rising through the academy and his chances of a Red Bull promotion becoming increasingly slim, he must start looking elsewhere.
Tsunoda was already close to losing his Formula 1 dream in his first two years, struggling more than expected to adapt to the top category. However, thanks to strong performances in 2023 and 2024, seasons in which he matured and became the leading driver for the Faenza-based team, he managed to retain his seat. But how much longer will that last?
Helmut Marko has warned that Yuki Tsunoda may not have a future in Formula 1 if he fails to outperform his rookie teammate, Isack Hadjar. Yuki Tsunoda is now entering his fifth season with the Faenza squad, an unusual length of stay for a team primarily focused on developing young drivers for Red Bull.
Within Racing Bulls, his position remains solid—he is appreciated and seen as a key reference, having grown alongside the team over the past four years and achieved some notable results. This was particularly evident in early 2024, when his points were crucial in the battle for sixth place in the standings.
However, if his 2025 campaign is not equally convincing, Red Bull’s notoriously ruthless approach to driver management could see changes. The Red Bull Junior Team continues to produce promising talents, including Arvid Lindblad, who recently completed laps in an AT04 at Imola, gaining valuable F1 experience.
“He must prove himself. He has a young and fast teammate beside him, and the future is his, so he must find his own motivation,” Marko told Motorsport.com. “If he performs well, there will be a future. If he doesn’t, perhaps there will be no more opportunities for him in F1.”
Last year, Lawson’s promotion was based on both mental strength and long-term potential. “The decision was primarily about mental toughness. Unfortunately, Yuki had two crashes in Mexico, and during that time, Liam performed very well. So we evaluated all the factors before choosing Liam.”
Yuki Tsunoda’s fate is in his own hands, though Red Bull has been known for surprising shake-ups over the years. The Japanese driver has made it clear that his goal is to remain in F1 in 2026, ideally within the Red Bull family, even if that means another season with Racing Bulls.
If Red Bull were to drop Yuki Tsunoda, his chances of staying in Formula 1 would diminish significantly. Many teams have recently signed multi-year contracts with new drivers, including Williams, Haas, and Sauber. One potential opportunity could be a move to Aston Martin, given the existing ties with Honda, but several factors would need to align for that to happen.
Honda Racing Corporation president Koji Watanabe has clarified that Yuki Tsunoda is no longer part of Honda’s driver academy, having previously been supported through the “Formula Dream Project,” though a sponsorship agreement remains in place.
“Yuki Tsunoda has a sponsorship agreement with us. He is fundamentally an independent driver, but we support him as a sponsor. However, he must secure his own future,” Watanabe told the Japanese edition of Motorsport.com.
“He is in his fifth year, has the skills, and knows the F1 world well. We cannot do much more for him. Drivers cannot rely on Honda forever. A driver at this stage of his career, like Tsunoda, must think for himself.”
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