Guenther Steiner believes George Russell has only a five per cent chance of returning to the 2026 Formula 1 championship battle, while offering a far more optimistic assessment of Max Verstappen’s ability to produce unexpected results with Red Bull. The former Haas team principal also suggested that George Russell may already be considering opportunities beyond Mercedes.
Formula 1’s summer break provides teams, paddock personnel and supporters with an opportunity to relax, but it is also the moment when the first conclusions can be drawn from a season that has reached its halfway point. Both George Russell and Max Verstappen have faced complicated campaigns, although Guenther Steiner believes their respective situations are very different.
Guenther Steiner gives George Russell five per cent title chance
During an extended interview with The Red Flags Podcast, Guenther Steiner assessed the seasons of the Mercedes and Red Bull drivers in his customary direct style.
Asked whether George Russell could recover and re-enter the fight for the Formula 1 World Championship, the experienced manager admitted that such a comeback was technically possible but considered it extremely unlikely.
“It is difficult to answer in a politically correct way, because anything is possible, but I think a comeback would be very difficult,” Guenther Steiner said. “If I had to put a percentage on it, I believe he has a five per cent chance of getting himself back into the championship fight.”
George Russell’s position has become increasingly complicated as the season has progressed. Although the British driver has produced several strong performances, the championship situation has left him with little room for further setbacks. The latest Formula 1 driver standings provide the wider context for the challenge facing the Mercedes driver.
Guenther Steiner’s judgement also reflects the concern that George Russell could become trapped in a supporting role within Mercedes as Kimi Antonelli’s influence and status inside the team continue to grow. That possibility has already prompted questions over whether George Russell risks becoming Mercedes’ new Valtteri Bottas.
Could George Russell consider leaving Mercedes?
Guenther Steiner went beyond assessing George Russell’s title chances and suggested that the British driver may no longer feel entirely comfortable with his long-term position at Mercedes.
“I think George is also starting to look around,” Guenther Steiner said. “He is now in the team with Kimi and probably does not want to spend the rest of his career alongside him, because he knows very well what the comparison would be. For that reason, I think he is looking for new opportunities.”
The comments represent Guenther Steiner’s personal interpretation rather than confirmation that George Russell is actively negotiating with another team. However, they highlight the competitive pressure created by Kimi Antonelli’s presence and the importance of the internal Mercedes hierarchy for the British driver’s future.
Kimi Antonelli has established himself as one of the central figures in Mercedes’ long-term plans, although his development continues to be closely assessed. Former Ferrari engineer Luigi Mazzola recently explained why Kimi Antonelli is not yet a complete Formula 1 champion, despite the Italian driver’s speed and potential.
Guenther Steiner refuses to write off Max Verstappen
Guenther Steiner offered a very different verdict on Max Verstappen. Although Red Bull is not currently viewed as the strongest team, the former Haas boss believes the Dutch driver remains capable of exploiting opportunities that would be unavailable to most of the grid.
“Red Bull can achieve something, but I do not believe it can win at the moment,” Guenther Steiner explained. “Or rather, the ‘Max Verstappen Red Bull’. Let us call it that, because Max always manages to pull something out of the hat.”
“He was surprised himself to have finished second in Hungary. He did not even know how he had managed it. But we know very well how he does it: whenever an opportunity presents itself, he always takes advantage of it.”
Max Verstappen finished second behind Lando Norris at the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix, while George Russell crossed the line seventh for Mercedes. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} The result reinforced the impression that the reigning Red Bull leader can still maximise difficult weekends even when his car does not possess the outright pace required to control a race.
Guenther Steiner’s reference to the “Max Verstappen Red Bull” underlines how strongly the team’s results remain associated with its leading driver. His argument is that Red Bull’s current competitive potential cannot be assessed independently of Max Verstappen’s ability to extract more from the package when circumstances create an opening.
Different outlooks for George Russell and Max Verstappen
The contrasting verdicts reveal how Guenther Steiner views the two drivers at the halfway stage of the season. George Russell may still have a mathematical route back into contention, but the former team principal regards a genuine title recovery as highly improbable and believes uncertainty may also be developing around the Mercedes driver’s future.
Max Verstappen, by comparison, is competing with a Red Bull that Guenther Steiner does not currently consider capable of winning on pure performance. Even so, the four-time world champion remains a threat because of his ability to recognise and exploit every competitive opportunity.
For Guenther Steiner, that is the decisive distinction. George Russell’s hopes depend on an unlikely championship turnaround, while Max Verstappen remains capable of producing results that the underlying level of the Red Bull might not appear to support.
Leave a Reply