Russell – From title favorite to chasing Antonelli in 2026: what is going wrong?
Five months have passed since the beginning of the new year. Back in January, there was one name on everyone’s lips: George Russell. Rumors surrounding Mercedes’ expected dominance under the new Formula 1 regulations were spreading faster than ever and, together with them, came widespread predictions of a championship controlled by the British driver.
When comparing George Russell to the extremely young and inexperienced Andrea Kimi Antonelli, it seemed perfectly logical to expect a clear performance hierarchy with the Mercedes veteran ahead of the Italian rookie. Yet Formula 1 rarely follows logic exactly as expected.
After four Grands Prix and two sprint weekends, the driver sitting higher in the standings with three victories already secured is not George Russell, but Andrea Kimi Antonelli. So what exactly has not worked inside the Mercedes garage of the number 63 driver?
George Russell and the start of 2026: bad luck and missed opportunities
The season for the man many predicted would become world champion actually started exactly as expected. In Australia, George Russell delivered total dominance ahead of both his teammate and the Ferrari pairing. Despite a poor start, Russell’s race pace was untouchable and he overtook Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari with apparent ease after only a few laps. Had the following races unfolded like Melbourne, the predictions of Mercedes domination would have looked absolutely correct.
However, from the Chinese Grand Prix to the Miami Grand Prix, the points lost compared to Andrea Kimi Antonelli have become significant. Three consecutive pole positions were converted into three victories by the Italian driver, despite the month-long break between Japan and the United States.
So what happened to George Russell? Contrary to what many people claim, the British driver has not suddenly lost performance. Instead, a chain of unfortunate events combined with one genuinely disappointing weekend in Miami — a circuit he has never particularly enjoyed — has created the current situation.
In China, George fRussell’s Mercedes suffered a double issue in both Q2 and Q3. Even so, he managed to recover and, despite several difficulties, still finished in second place behind Antonelli. In the race itself, however, he struggled to match the pace of his teammate.
In Japan, it looked as though the Melbourne version of George Russell had returned, but on Saturday Andrea Kimi Antonelli produced a sensational qualifying performance. Then on Sunday, Russell was extremely unlucky with the timing of his pit stop, which came exactly one lap before the Safety Car was deployed. Antonelli’s victory was more than deserved, but fortune certainly played a significant role in shaping the final outcome.
What George Russell must do to beat Antonelli
The only truly underwhelming Grand Prix for George Russell came in Miami last week. The British driver struggled throughout the weekend to find the correct setup on a circuit he openly dislikes. However, a driver who wants to become Formula 1 world champion cannot afford to have “good tracks” and “bad tracks,” even if it is completely normal to feel less comfortable on certain layouts across the calendar.
The Canadian Grand Prix will therefore become a crucial test. Montréal is a circuit George Russell loves, the expected weather conditions should suit the Mercedes W17 perfectly, and the British driver achieved excellent results there in both 2024 and 2025.
If Andrea Kimi Antonelli finishes ahead of George Russell again in Canada, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff may begin asking himself whether it makes sense to focus the majority of the team’s resources and upgrades primarily on Kimi as the effective “number one” driver. In simple terms, the goal would be to guarantee that at least one of the two drivers can consistently perform at the highest level possible.
It would be a philosophy very similar to the approach Red Bull has followed for years, building its setup direction around the preferences of Max Verstappen.
George Russell wants to prove to the Formula 1 world that he is better than Andrea Kimi Antonelli and that he deserves to become world champion. The first thing he must do is avoid being overwhelmed by anxiety and frustration while watching his teammate continue to win race after race.
He must continue working hard on setup development, improve his race starts and prepare psychologically for what will almost certainly become an internal Mercedes title battle. The physical speed and technical ability required to win are already there. What he needs now is the right mindset.
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