Max Verstappen has definitively reopened the World Championship fight thanks to a flawless weekend in Austin, where he claimed both the Sprint and the main Grand Prix victories, as well as the two respective pole positions. In the standings, the Dutch driver is now 40 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri and 26 points behind his McLaren teammate and title rival Lando Norris. This marks an impressive comeback for the four-time world champion, who after the Dutch Grand Prix – the first race following the summer break – was 104 points behind Piastri. What seemed an insurmountable gap has been more than halved in just a few rounds.
From the very next weekend in Monza, the momentum of the championship shifted. Verstappen has been in stunning form, aided by a technically revitalized Red Bull under the guidance of Laurent Mekies. In contrast, McLaren seems to have hit a few obstacles, struggling in recent races to maintain the pace that allowed them to dominate much of the season. The championship is therefore no longer just a two-horse race between the Woking teammates, as Verstappen has re-entered the title battle.
With five Grands Prix remaining – Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi – including two Sprint formats, it is worth analyzing which circuits are likely to favor McLaren’s characteristics and which will suit Red Bull.
McLaren-friendly circuits
The next two rounds, in Mexico and Brazil, should favor McLaren. Both tracks feature medium-to-high-speed corners where the MCL39 can fully exploit its potential. Additionally, particularly in Mexico, high air and track temperatures are expected, and the papaya car has historically performed well in hot conditions. These characteristics were also present in Austin, where McLaren struggled more than expected, likely due to the lack of data from the Sprint race, in which Piastri and Norris retired within a few meters. However, while the Australian struggled throughout Sunday’s Grand Prix, the British driver showed strong pace, especially once he cleared Leclerc and was able to run in clean air.
Mexico will be a critical test for Woking after four less-than-ideal weekends. With three practice sessions available, any poor performance cannot be blamed on a lack of setup information.
Red Bull-favored circuits
Austin once again demonstrated Red Bull’s significant performance improvement. After strong results on unconventional tracks like Monza, Baku, and Singapore, where setup challenges were greater, the RB21 also excelled on a more conventional circuit that, on paper, seemed to favor McLaren. The Milton Keynes team looks ready to challenge their rivals on any track. While Brazil and Mexico may suit McLaren’s layout, both circuits are also favorable to Verstappen.
The circuit where Red Bull is likely to start as the favorite is the Las Vegas street track, characterized by long straights similar to Monza and Baku, circuits where Verstappen has dominated. In Qatar and Abu Dhabi, both teams should be relatively evenly matched, as the tracks, though different, are technically comprehensive.
Possible showdown
Even if a track suits one car more than the other, it is hard to imagine any of the remaining races being dominated exclusively by one team. While the current momentum favors Red Bull, until a few Grands Prix ago McLaren was the dominant team, clinching the Constructors’ Championship with six races to spare. Overall, the two cars now appear closely matched in performance, meaning the drivers’ skills may ultimately make the difference.
The championship standings still favor Piastri and Norris, but Verstappen’s presence, racing at the limits of perfection in recent weeks, has become even more significant after Austin. With 141 points still up for grabs (125 from Grands Prix and 16 from Sprints), anything can happen. Who will come out on top in the end?
Leave a Reply