Let’s rewind a few days to the end of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. If Max Verstappen had managed to defend his pole position and cross the finish line first, he would currently be leading the championship standings. A surprising fact, especially considering that McLaren has so far appeared to be the strongest car on the grid.
This leads to three conclusions: first, the papaya drivers haven’t fully capitalized on their car’s potential, particularly Lando Norris, a driver with proven speed whose tendency to make mistakes is hindering his championship pursuit.
The second and third conclusions are linked: Max Verstappen is extracting everything possible from the Red Bull, and the RB21 currently seems to be the only car truly capable of challenging McLaren. The issue is that its strengths on high-speed corners and efficient layouts clash with its clear weaknesses elsewhere.
The last three Grands Prix offer the perfect illustration of this two-faced Red Bull: in Suzuka and Jeddah, Max Verstappen fought for the win, even claiming victory in Japan, while in Bahrain, the RB21 was the fourth-best team, outpaced by both Mercedes and Ferrari.
Throughout the triple-header, both strengths and flaws of the car emerged. It’s the most unpredictable of the front-runners but also the one with the highest performance ceiling among the chasers. The RB21 was expected to be a wildcard early in the season, and it has lived up to that role with inconsistent results.
At Suzuka, Red Bull turned things around overnight between Friday and Saturday. At Jeddah, however, the scenario was different. For the first time this season, the Milton Keynes team arrived with a setup already close to the ideal window. This allowed them to focus not on reinventing the car setup, but on refining the details.
This approach proved crucial for the rest of the weekend, especially in addressing the tire overheating issues Verstappen experienced on Friday. They fine-tuned the setup incrementally, avoiding their usual miracle overnight changes. Despite the final result, Verstappen showed strong race pace.
High-speed corners requiring a stable and rigid aero platform, along with the strong DRS effect, highlighted the RB21’s best traits. Like its predecessor, the car excels on this type of circuit—securing pole and fighting for the win.
Suzuka and Jeddah demonstrated Red Bull’s ability to deliver standout performances and “magical” moments, with Verstappen as the ideal driver to bring out the best in the car. Sometimes it shines in qualifying, but its race performance often hinges on tire degradation—performing best when tire wear is low.
Yet, Bahrain exposed all the limitations that prevent the RB21 from being as “universal” as the MCL39. McLaren’s edge lies not just in downforce, but in being consistently competitive across all kinds of tracks—traits that allowed the RB19 to dominate in 2023.
The high temperatures in Sakhir, coupled with its layout featuring many sharp, medium-to-slow-speed corners requiring strong traction, revealed areas where the RB21 still needs development.
Long straights followed by tight corners favor heavy braking and traction—areas where Red Bull must improve. In short-radius corners prone to understeer, McLaren has made major progress, offering more flexibility in driving.
It’s no surprise that, following Bahrain, Red Bull’s leadership convened to plan next steps and revised their Friday approach. Numerous experiments were conducted and paid off: “Compared to Bahrain, we’ve made great progress, and this track suits us better. We’re making strides and getting a more predictable car that works in a broader range,” Helmut Marko said after Jeddah.
The early calendar favored Red Bull with circuits rich in high-speed turns, minimizing challenges on slower, high-degradation tracks. In China, Verstappen could have fought for the podium if not for strategy missteps stemming from tire degradation concerns on Saturday—unusual for Red Bull.
Upcoming challenges are tougher: Miami will be hot, followed by Imola, Barcelona, and Monaco. The Spanish Grand Prix blends fast and slow sectors, where McLaren’s versatility was already evident last year. With a papaya-colored phase of the calendar ahead, relying on optimal setups or overnight miracles won’t be enough.
For over a year, Red Bull has been chasing the right balance and broader operating window, which would allow greater setup flexibility across different circuits. The RB21 will follow its upgrade path starting from the next races—crucial to shaping the season and trying to beat a McLaren that’s quick on all fronts.
Still, Helmut Marko remains optimistic. He emphasized that once issues are understood, Red Bull will move forward step by step to regain the lead and, above all, make the RB21 a more consistent and effective car on every track—eliminating its dual personality: “We’ll take small steps, and I think by Imola we’ll be in a position where we have the speed to beat the McLarens,” added Helmut Marko.
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