With just five races left in the Formula 1 season, the drivers’ championship battle is heating up between McLaren’s duo—already crowned constructors’ champions—and Max Verstappen, a five-time winner of the Mexico Grand Prix. The form of these three drivers couldn’t be more different, as is their standing in the championship. Lando Norris finds himself in the middle ground—not in top form and not leading the points but still in contention for the title despite a challenging season. The Brit hasn’t won since the Hungarian Grand Prix and has scored only 57 points since the summer break, compared to 62 for his teammate Oscar Piastri and a whopping 119 for Verstappen, partly due to a costly retirement in Zandvoort. However, Norris has been the stronger McLaren driver since Monza, consistently finishing ahead of Piastri’s papaya-colored car. The Mexico Grand Prix is a pivotal moment, especially for Norris’s rivals. Piastri can’t afford another lackluster weekend after struggles in Baku and Austin, while Verstappen, if outpaced by both McLarens, would face the daunting task of overcoming a 40-point deficit in just four races. For McLaren, Mexico could be their best shot at victory before the season ends, and a Norris win could close the gap to Piastri to just seven points.
Mexico Grand Prix: Track layout favors McLaren, but Red Bull and Verstappen are always in the mix
The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez suits the McLaren MCL39 with its mix of medium- and low-speed corners, where Red Bull’s RB21—improved by a new floor—shouldn’t be underestimated, especially after Verstappen’s dominant performance at the Circuit of the Americas. Another key factor in Mexico is the thin air at high altitude, which reduces aerodynamic drag and downforce, pushing teams to run high-downforce setups and extreme cooling solutions. Many teams, including Ferrari, are expected to introduce modified engine covers to cope with these demands. McLaren’s cooling efficiency, a strength earlier this season, could give the MCL39 an edge this weekend. The extreme cooling requirements for the power unit and brakes will influence not only car setups but also race strategy, with clean air being critical. This puts a premium on qualifying and the opening lap. Mercedes driver George Russell recently highlighted the importance of starting position: “Even before the race, I was convinced that wherever I was in Turn 1 would be where I’d finish. You need over half a second per lap to overtake nowadays.” In Mexico, these challenges will be amplified compared to Austin.
The second half of Q3 will be critical, where nailing a near-perfect lap is increasingly vital. Data shows Verstappen and Russell have been the best at this in 2025, with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc close behind despite the SF-25’s struggles. Since Red Bull introduced upgrades to the RB21, Verstappen has been flawless in qualifying, securing three pole positions in the last four races. Meanwhile, McLaren hasn’t claimed a front-row start in that period, though Norris has shown improvement, even if he’s not yet at the reigning champion’s level. Piastri, on the other hand, has hit a rough patch. For McLaren’s drivers, a clean and competitive qualifying lap is essential, as the MCL39 has proven unbeatable in clean air, as seen in Singapore and Austin. Piastri, who outshone Norris earlier in the season, must regain confidence on a track where he struggled in 2023 and 2024.
Aerodynamically, the Mexico track is the best fit for McLaren among the remaining five races, making this Grand Prix their biggest opportunity to return to the top step and widen the gap to Max Verstappen in the standings. Norris’s driving style could play to his advantage here, and the No. 4 driver needs to maintain his upward trajectory to close in on the championship leader. However, with such tight margins, execution will be key—an area where Red Bull and Verstappen consistently excel. The fight for second in the constructors’ championship, where Mercedes leads Ferrari by seven points and Red Bull by ten, will take a backseat. Compared to Austin, Mexico’s track emphasizes medium- and low-speed sections, favoring Mercedes over Ferrari, though small details will decide the outcome. The smooth asphalt, milder temperatures around 27°C, and lower wind impact are notable differences from the previous race.
Mexico Grand Prix: Pirelli’s compound choices shake things up, but variables are limited
For the second consecutive weekend, Pirelli has opted for a compound skip, bringing C2, C4, and C5 tires to Mexico—one step softer than in Austin. Pirelli notes a significant performance gap between the hard (C2) tire and the softer compounds, with the hard offering less grip. This choice aims to add unpredictability to a race that last year saw most top drivers comfortably manage a one-stop strategy. The soft (C5) tire wasn’t used in the 2024 race but could play a bigger role this time. After Friday’s practice sessions, teams will likely lean toward a C4-C2 or C5-C4 strategy. Why rule out a two-stop? A 22-second pit stop is a factor, but the bigger issue is cooling demands, which push teams to maximize clean-air running. Overtaking multiple cars requires raw pace and tire management that even the MCL39 may struggle to deliver.
The track’s limited use throughout the year and the high-altitude conditions at 2,200 meters make tire management tricky, with potential graining over the 71-lap race. In qualifying, avoiding tire overheating in the first half of the lap will be crucial. Drivers will need to carefully manage their car’s limits during flying laps, a challenge for McLaren’s duo against Max Verstappen’s precision. The track’s rapid evolution could also spring surprises in qualifying, where Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have previously been knocked out early. With McLaren’s car perfectly suited to Mexico’s unique demands, this weekend could be a defining moment in their championship chase, provided they execute flawlessly.
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