The Mercedes Formula One Team began the 2025 season with a strong display of consistency, collecting four podium finishes in the first six races. However, since the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix in Imola, the performance of the Mercedes W16 has become increasingly erratic. The only standout result since then has been George Russell’s impressive victory at the Canadian Grand Prix. Although both drivers have often pointed to track temperatures as a key variable affecting their performance, the true picture is far more complex: the competitiveness of the W16 is not solely dependent on how hot or cold the asphalt is, but rather on a combination of limiting factors that expose the car’s structural and setup weaknesses.
In the opening phase of the 2025 Formula 1 season, one of Mercedes’ strengths was its ability to deliver stable and reliable performances. The W16, while not excelling in any specific area, proved to be a car that could adapt well to a range of circuits and conditions. Even if some good results were partly aided by fortunate race circumstances, the four podium finishes across the first six events were nonetheless a solid return.
However, beginning with the Imola race, and compounded by improvements made by rival teams, the Brackley-based outfit has struggled to maintain that level of performance. George Russell’s triumph in Montreal remains the only true highlight, further boosted by the first-ever Formula 1 podium for Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
What has surprised the engineers at Mercedes most is the mixed impact of in-season upgrades. New components have often delivered inconsistent results and have even been removed by the very next race weekend. This was particularly true for the rear suspension, which was introduced with the hope of solving thermal degradation problems but ultimately failed to provide a breakthrough.
Disappointments at circuits like the Red Bull Ring in Austria and Silverstone in the United Kingdom have been particularly painful—not necessarily due to the final race results, but because of the car’s lack of competitive race pace. At the Red Bull Ring, for example, the Mercedes W16 finished over one minute behind the winner and more than 30 seconds adrift of the Ferrari drivers.
Looking ahead to the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, the team had hoped for a turnaround. The layout was expected to suit the car better, and the forecasted cooler temperatures were considered a potential advantage. Throughout the season, the narrative has often linked the W16’s form to track temperature. But is this actually accurate? Not entirely.
Paradoxically, the worst qualifying deficit this year came at the Japanese Grand Prix, where track temperatures were below 30°C—the coldest qualifying session of the season. Conversely, the team secured pole position in Canada on a day when the tarmac hit 41°C, the second-highest surface temperature of the entire championship, just behind Austria, where Q3 saw nearly 45°C.
Although it is true that the Mercedes car has often struggled when track temperatures exceeded 40°C—losing three tenths of a second per lap in Spain, five in Australia, and eight in Austria—this is not merely a heat-related issue. Rather, the problem lies in the W16’s difficulty in operating within its ideal performance window.
Indeed, the relationship between temperature and performance is more nuanced. In qualifying sessions, where Mercedes typically performs better, the car has shown its strongest pace on tracks with surface temperatures ranging between 30°C and 40°C. This range likely represents the sweet spot for tyre management, allowing the W16 to minimize overheating issues and extract more consistent performance.
Race-day data paints a more complex picture. For instance, in Bahrain, despite relatively low track temperatures, the average lap-time deficit was larger than in China, where the asphalt was a few degrees warmer but significantly less abrasive.
Spain provided another anomaly: despite asphalt temperatures nearing 50°C on one of the fastest tracks on the calendar, Mercedes actually recorded a smaller average race gap to McLaren than it did in Miami, where the temperature dropped to around 35°C in the latter stages, or at Imola, which had cooler conditions. Admittedly, harder tyre compounds were used in Barcelona, but even so, Mercedes’ performance was strong. In Canada, where asphalt temperatures also reached 50°C, the W16 took its first win of the year.
All of this reinforces an important takeaway—one that is less of a revelation and more of a confirmation. Mercedes is not suffering from high temperatures in isolation, but rather from a narrow and fragile operating window. This can sometimes be masked during qualifying, where single-lap setups can hide deeper flaws, but it becomes far more evident over race distance.
A compelling comparison can be drawn between Saudi Arabia and Miami. In Jeddah, the Mercedes W16 was completely off the pace while Red Bull Racing fought for the win. In contrast, in Miami, Mercedes was in podium contention, aided by a timely Virtual Safety Car, while Red Bull struggled to match the performance of McLaren. After the race, Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner explained that despite similar track temperatures at both events, the RB21 had handled tyre degradation very differently, particularly at Miami—an issue that has similarly affected Mercedes’ campaign.
Performance, therefore, depends on a wide range of variables. In Canada, for example, although the surface was scorching at 50°C, the track layout—with its slow corners and long straights—helped keep thermal degradation in check, reducing tyre wear, which remains one of the W16’s key weaknesses. In Austria, temperatures were again high, but the real issue was the car’s inability to dissipate heat effectively through the rapid succession of corners.
Curiously, despite the Spanish Grand Prix being held on one of the fastest tracks of the year, it marked the smallest performance gap for Mercedes since the Bahrain race earlier in the season. Conversely, in Saudi Arabia—a circuit with high grip and low degradation asphalt—the W16 struggled with tyre wear, even though track temperatures were moderate, hovering around 35°C during the night race. This suggests that poor setup choices, more than environmental conditions, were to blame.
Another issue has been Mercedes’ extensive experimentation over recent race weekends, both mechanically and aerodynamically. Despite numerous changes, the team has not yet found a consistent setup, particularly following the introduction of the new rear suspension. This was meant to improve thermal degradation on the rear axle but has yet to deliver the desired outcome.
Ultimately, the Mercedes W16 does not appear to be a car that is inherently sensitive to heat. Rather, it is a car with a limited and highly specific performance window. This sensitivity to certain combinations of track layout, asphalt characteristics, thermal load, and setup choices continues to limit its potential. Over the years, both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell have frequently expressed frustration about the car’s narrow operating window—a persistent weakness that remains unsolved and continues to cause the erratic results seen throughout the 2025 season.
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