Amid McLaren’s superiority, Ferrari’s ups and downs, and Red Bull’s internal struggles, Mercedes’ strong start to the season has gone somewhat unnoticed. The team currently sits second in the standings, thanks in part to two podium finishes from an excellent George Russell, who has demonstrated the speed and consistency that Mercedes strongly believed in, but also to the points scored by Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
The Italian’s start to the season has not been particularly consistent, which is expected for a rookie, but that does not mean flashes of talent have not been seen as his learning process continues. Although Kimi Antonelli had multiple opportunities to drive an F1 car during TPC test sessions, the experience gained in a race weekend is irreplaceable.
Just as he has returned to school to prepare for his high school exams, he continues his studies on track as well. Naturally, there is still much to learn, with a significant margin for growth, particularly in qualifying—not only because Kimi Antonelli has a teammate who excels in this area but also because understanding how to maximize performance on the softest tire compounds is no easy task.
The first step is learning how to exploit the soft tires
Carlos Sainz is currently demonstrating this challenge at Williams. Despite not yet having a perfect feel for the FW47, he has struggled to extract maximum grip from the soft tires. The further up the Pirelli range you go, the more difficult it becomes to manage the operating window of the tires—especially considering that Kimi Antonelli had never tested the C5 compound before, which is highly sensitive.
Additionally, during winter testing in Bahrain, work on the C4 compound was limited, nearly nonexistent, as teams focused more on the harder compounds, particularly the C3, on which Kimi Antonelli did some time attack runs. All these factors help clarify the areas where the young Italian can improve in qualifying, which is crucial in setting up the rest of the weekend.
With such tight gaps in the midfield, even a few hundredths of a second can mean several positions on the grid. Starting in traffic from the opening laps can compromise the race, turning it into an uphill battle. The best example of this issue was the Sprint Qualifying session at the Chinese Grand Prix.
With only one attempt available in SQ3 on the soft tires, Kimi Antonelli was unable to improve on his SQ2 time set on the medium compound, actually going two-tenths slower. This was in stark contrast to his teammate, George Russell, who improved his time by nearly two-tenths in line with Pirelli’s expectations.
According to the Milanese tire manufacturer, the gap between the C3 and C4 compounds was not particularly large, but the difference lay in the fact that while the softer tire had more potential, it was also harder to manage. As a result, a gap that was under a tenth and a half in SQ2, and had consistently been just a few hundredths up to that point, widened to nearly six-tenths in SQ3.
In both Australia and China, Kimi Antonelli struggled with warming up the soft tires, often entering Turn 1 with underheated tires due to his lack of experience with the softer compounds. In fact, the more forgiving the tires, the more competitive he has been.
“I think we were close in SQ2, and I felt good with the car, but with the softs, I really struggled, especially because I felt like I was lacking grip. I don’t think I optimized the tire warm-up, and when I started the lap, the tires were too cold, so I struggled throughout the whole lap,” the Italian explained in China.
Another challenge has been the Mercedes W16’s sensitivity to changes in conditions and tire preparation, despite the team’s winter efforts to widen its operating window.
Paradoxically, Russell’s second-place finish in the main qualifying session on Saturday was a clear demonstration of this: to secure a front-row start, the Briton completely changed his outlap approach for his final run, and suddenly, the car found the grip that had been missing in previous attempts.
In China, floor damage cost him 0.3 seconds per lap
All of this highlights how, even though Antonelli is not yet extracting the car’s full potential, the W16 itself is a very delicate machine to manage. Additionally, he has also been unlucky. In Australia, he suffered floor damage after briefly running over gravel, which led to his Q1 elimination. In China, he faced the same issue when debris from Charles Leclerc’s damaged front wing got lodged under his car at the start of the race.
“When Leclerc hit the rear tire of Lewis Hamilton, he broke his front wing. Kimi saw it but couldn’t avoid it, and the debris ended up under his car, damaging the floor,” explained Andrew Shovlin.
According to Mercedes’ data, the damage cost him around two to three-tenths per lap and also affected the car’s balance, worsening rear tire degradation—the very issue Russell had to manage for much of the race.
“Looking at the aerodynamic data, the damage cost us two or three-tenths per lap in downforce. But the bigger issue was that the downforce was no longer evenly distributed across the car. You may have heard Kimi on the radio saying he had no rear grip, which led to tire sliding and overheating. He had to fight this issue throughout the entire race.”
“You can make small adjustments by tweaking the front wing, but that can make the car more unpredictable and inconsistent. It’s not just about losing two or three-tenths of performance—it also means that balance can shift significantly in different corners. Kimi did a great job managing the problem, but it was frustrating because we believe that, given his race pace, he could have fought with Verstappen and the Ferraris,” Shovlin added.
Mercedes has confidence in the young Italian and believes there is still significant room for growth. For now, the first priority is improving in qualifying to avoid traffic and move closer to the top teams. The road ahead is still long and challenging, but flashes of his talent have already been seen—especially in the wet conditions in Australia, where he pulled off a brilliant comeback, capped by a spectacular overtake on Albon in the final laps.
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