Weather forecasts predict a 60 percent chance of rain for Saturday and 40 percent for Sunday. Verstappen returns to Interlagos exactly one year after his remarkable comeback that earned him widespread praise, even from rivals. Starting only twelfth due to a red flag triggered by Lance Stroll’s crash and then dropping to the ninth row after an engine change, Verstappen delivered a stunning recovery on a wet track — a performance still regarded as one of the finest moments of his career.
The 2024 win left a lasting impression, and if this weekend’s races are hit by rain, Verstappen naturally stands as the main favorite. Yet, not everyone believes history will automatically repeat itself. One of the McLaren MCL39’s key strengths is its excellent tire temperature management — an advantage that could play into Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri’s hands if the race requires intermediate compounds. As seen in recent rounds, qualifying will again be crucial, even on a circuit that offers more overtaking opportunities than most. “Clean air is king,” the drivers like to say, as clear air remains the key to maximizing the potential of cars that are reaching the end of their development cycles.
As the season nears its end, the situation changes race by race. The countdown to the Abu Dhabi finale is shaping up to be a true ping-pong match, where every move demands an instant reply. Verstappen arrives in São Paulo trailing Norris by 36 points after the Briton’s decisive win in Mexico — a result that now forces the Red Bull driver to respond immediately.
To stay in the title fight, Verstappen must outscore the McLaren pair in Brazil. Otherwise, with just 83 points remaining after São Paulo, his already slim championship hopes could shrink to single digits. Bookmakers, including British ones, still name Max as the favorite to win both the Sprint and the Grand Prix — a forecast partly influenced by emotions and memories of last year’s performance.
Many insiders believe that much of the outcome will be decided on Friday morning during the only free practice session. Interlagos is a well-rounded circuit with both slow corners and medium-speed turns, where achieving the perfect balance is essential. McLaren, on paper, starts with an advantage: the track layout seems tailor-made for the MCL39, and its wide operating window will again be a powerful ally — as proven several times this season.
If Interlagos were not hosting a Sprint weekend, it would be difficult for rivals, including Max Verstappen, to seriously challenge Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. But with only sixty minutes of practice before the action begins, the compressed format introduces extra variables that could benefit Red Bull and other challengers.
Power unit freshness will also play a major role in Brazil. The fifteen seconds of full-throttle from the exit of Junção to the braking zone of Turn 1 emphasize both aerodynamic efficiency and engine power, pushing every component to its limits. This brings engine rotation strategies into focus once again.
Unlike last year, Red Bull is confident it can finish the season using its four allocated power units — a stance shared by McLaren. With the championship this tight, even a single grid penalty from using a fifth engine could prove decisive in determining the title outcome.
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