Mercedes’ strategy during the Austrian Grand Prix has come under renewed scrutiny after race data suggested Kimi Antonelli may have had the pace to fight not only Max Verstappen but potentially even team-mate George Russell had his final pit stop been brought forward.
While Team Principal Toto Wolff defended the decisions made from the pit wall, the numbers from Antonelli’s final stint paint a different picture and raise legitimate questions about whether Mercedes missed an opportunity to secure an even stronger result.
Mercedes’ strategic dilemma in Austria
Following the Spanish Grand Prix, Toto Wolff had openly admitted that Mercedes’ reluctance to issue team orders had cost the team victory: “We’ve always said we don’t want to impose team orders, but today we lost the race because we didn’t want to give one. It’s an issue we’ll have to address,” Wolff had said after Barcelona.
No team orders were required in Austria, but there was one crucial phase of the race where Mercedes’ strategic decisions deserve closer examination.
On lap 42, George Russell was leading by just over one second from Max Verstappen, while Kimi Antonelli was approximately seven seconds further back. Concerned about the possibility of a Red Bull undercut, Mercedes brought Russell into the pits at the end of the following lap, ending a 24-lap stint on the hard tyres.
That temporarily promoted Verstappen into the race lead. Red Bull elected to extend the Dutchman’s stint, hoping that fresher tyres later in the race would provide one final opportunity to attack the Mercedes.
The decisive strategic moment
The outcome of the race was effectively shaped during this phase.
Instead of mirroring Russell’s strategy, Mercedes chose to leave Antonelli out on track for several additional laps. Verstappen eventually made his stop on lap 49, by which point the young Italian had already reduced the gap to the Red Bull to less than two seconds.
Even after Verstappen pitted, Mercedes kept Antonelli on track for another two laps. During that period, he lost roughly two and a half seconds to both George Russell and Max Verstappen. Looking at the final classification, that time loss becomes particularly significant. Antonelli eventually crossed the finish line only three tenths of a second behind Verstappen and less than two seconds behind Russell.
“I think it was the right strategy at the right time,” Toto Wolff commented. “When Kimi came back onto the track after his final stop, Oscar Piastri was only 1.8 seconds behind him. I believe the strategy worked. Kimi lost the race in the opening corners after starting in ‘full attack mode’. That caused him to miss his braking point into Turn 1, Turn 3 and Turn 4. But I like that approach—it’s exactly what I expect from him.”
The race data tells another story
There is little doubt that Antonelli compromised his race during the opening laps. However, Wolff’s explanation for delaying the final pit stop appears more open to debate.
“Extending Kimi’s final stint paid off. Every extra lap is worth around two and a half tenths because of fresher tyres, and that’s why Antonelli was so quick at the end,” Wolff explained.
Even if the Mercedes boss’s estimate of roughly a quarter of a second per lap is accepted, Antonelli’s final stint suggests the advantage was considerably greater. On lap 54, Antonelli trailed Russell by 13.642 seconds. Following Wolff’s logic, the benefit of the fresher tyres should have allowed him to recover approximately five seconds over the remaining eighteen laps.
Instead, Antonelli gained more than twice that amount.
Virtually no tyre degradation
Perhaps the most striking statistic from Antonelli’s race came during the closing stages.
His pace remained remarkably consistent all the way to the chequered flag, showing virtually no evidence of tyre degradation. On lap 59, he set a time of 1:10.374. Ten laps later, with only two laps remaining, he recorded a 1:10.407.
The difference was almost negligible. In effect, Antonelli completed the race with tyres that were still operating at an extremely high level of performance. That naturally raises an intriguing question: what might have happened had Mercedes called him into the pits three or four laps after Russell—or even at the same time as Verstappen?
The closing stages of the Austrian Grand Prix could have looked very different.
Did Mercedes underestimate Antonelli’s potential?
One possible explanation is that Mercedes, together with its remote garage in Brackley, underestimated the pace Antonelli would be capable of sustaining during the final stint.
Another possibility is that the strategy was also influenced by a desire to avoid a situation where Antonelli’s fresher tyres might have allowed him to challenge George Russell, potentially turning a comfortable one-two finish into an internal battle between the two Mercedes drivers.
There is no way to know for certain which factor ultimately influenced the decision. However, the data leaves enough room for doubt that the debate is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
And inevitably, it brings back the very reflection Toto Wolff made after the Spanish Grand Prix, when he admitted that strategic decisions and internal team management could ultimately prove decisive in Mercedes’ fight at the front of the Formula 1 grid.
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