Davide Valsecchi believes Kimi Antonelli is now far closer to becoming Formula 1 world champion than the mathematics alone suggest, arguing that the Mercedes driver has already overcome the most difficult psychological phase of his season. The former driver and television pundit also delivered a particularly emphatic assessment of the intra-team battle with George Russell, saying Antonelli has “killed him, sporting-wise”.
Speaking in an interview with Fanpage.it, Valsecchi highlighted the unusual calm Antonelli has shown throughout his title campaign. In his view, the decisive psychological test came at Baku, where the 20-year-old managed the pressure without making mistakes or taking unnecessary risks. With his championship advantage now substantial and the possibility of clinching the title as early as Austin, Valsecchi sees the outcome as increasingly a matter of when rather than if.
Valsecchi believes Antonelli has already overcome the hardest mental test
Asked whether the prospect of becoming world champion at the United States Grand Prix fundamentally changes a driver’s mindset, Valsecchi argued that Antonelli’s most difficult period has already passed.
“I’m convinced the worst part mentally for him has already passed. That was when Russell still believed he could make a comeback. Now he can mathematically win it at the next race, but he needs so few points that even if he had several bad races in a row, he would still remain in the ideal position.”
For Valsecchi, the most significant test came at Baku.
“Probably Baku. He drove calmly there, a very measured race, cautious and well calculated with his overtakes. He never took unnecessary risks and stayed out of all the trouble. In my opinion, that was the most complicated phase mentally and he handled it very well.”
‘Now it is mainly a matter of time’
Antonelli’s current position means Valsecchi believes the pressure should actually be decreasing rather than increasing.
“Now it is mainly a matter of time. Behind him there is a huge battle: Russell would practically have to win them all, but there are the Ferraris, Verstappen and many other drivers in between. Kimi is close to achieving not simply something great or a dream, he is close to making history.”
Valsecchi accepts that Antonelli will inevitably think about the championship, but does not believe those thoughts will fundamentally change his driving.
“Of course he will have some thoughts. But even if he had three consecutive weekends that were less good, with that car it might mean finishing sixth or seventh. The only thing he needs to do is avoid creating major problems for himself in every race, and honestly he really does not strike me as the kind of driver who would do that.”
Singapore reinforced Valsecchi’s confidence in Antonelli
Antonelli produced another solid performance in Singapore, including an overtake in the closing stages, and Valsecchi said the weekend only reinforced his belief in the Mercedes driver.
“Yes, he had another beautiful race, also topped off by the overtake at the end. He is doing everything so well that I’m not worried. I think in the next races he will simply continue to give his maximum because relatively little is now missing before he has mathematical certainty.”
Clinching the championship in Austin, however, remains difficult because Antonelli needs not only a victory but also favourable results from his rivals.
“No, because there he needs to win and he also needs a series of favourable results. But if it doesn’t happen in Austin, it can happen at the following race or the one after that. That is why, in my opinion, there is no reason to put pressure on yourself.”
Why Antonelli appeared surprised by his Austin title chance
Antonelli appeared almost surprised in Singapore when told he could mathematically secure the championship at the next race. Valsecchi believes that reaction was entirely genuine.
“In my opinion, yes, genuine spontaneity. Immediately after a race, you don’t even know exactly how many points your team-mate has scored or what all the permutations are. When I heard it, I also thought: ‘Really? With so many races still to go?’ It seemed like an absolutely natural reaction to me.”
Asked whether a driver would want to know every possible championship permutation before such a weekend, Valsecchi said focusing too heavily on the numbers would be unnecessary.
“No. You don’t obsess over these things. If he doesn’t win it there, he’ll win it later. There is no point wasting energy doing calculations and worrying. Kimi has very good management and a family who support him well. I think they will simply tell him to enjoy himself and keep racing the way he has been.”
‘The great thing is not the numbers – it is that he is driving brilliantly’
Valsecchi believes Antonelli’s greatest strength at this stage is that his performances have remained strong regardless of the championship situation.
“The great thing is not the numbers, it is that he is driving brilliantly. Instead of getting lost in thoughts about the World Championship, he keeps producing great weekends. Even when Russell seemed faster, Kimi was always there, well positioned and without mistakes, while Russell, for example, made a mistake when he was ahead in the Sprint.”
Asked what the worst mistake Antonelli could make now would be, Valsecchi suggested the championship advantage is so significant that an extraordinary collapse would be required.
“For me, the World Championship is so heavily tilted in his favour that he would have to do something truly absurd to lose it. He would practically have to stop turning up to races or completely change his attitude. And honestly, I see nothing in his character that suggests anything like that.”
Nor does Valsecchi expect Antonelli to become excessively conservative.
“No. He has already done so many difficult things this year that bringing this situation home seems like the easiest part to me. He has been superior throughout the season and now he simply needs to keep doing what he has done so far.”
Valsecchi compares Antonelli’s adaptation with Max Verstappen
Valsecchi has previously argued that Antonelli even outperformed Max Verstappen in adapting to Formula 1’s new regulations.
“Yes. Verstappen is now driving at his maximum and he is incredibly strong. But Antonelli was incredibly good at adapting immediately to the new regulations, not complaining and being fast from the very beginning while maintaining an extremely high level. That is a huge part of the job he has done.”
‘He destroyed his team-mate’ – Valsecchi on Russell
The assessment becomes much more severe when the subject turns to the internal Mercedes comparison with George Russell.
“He destroyed his team-mate. For long stretches Mercedes had a clearly superior car, so the real comparison was mainly internal. And when the car was no longer dominant, Kimi continued to bring home the results.”
What impresses Valsecchi most is Antonelli’s underlying calm and ability to process a race while operating under extreme physical and mental pressure.
“The underlying calm. That clarity of thought even under maximum effort has always been a quality of the great champions. He looks at the monitor, understands how the race is developing and manages to make things look normal that would be extremely difficult for others.”
Asked whether that might be Antonelli’s defining quality, Valsecchi added: “Maybe. He has an unusual calmness while doing a job that is extremely adrenaline-filled. Then, of course, there is speed and talent, but that attitude has allowed him to have what has practically been a perfect season.”
Antonelli’s mistakes have been minimal
Valsecchi acknowledged that Antonelli has not been completely faultless but considers his mistakes negligible compared with those of his rivals.
“There have been a few small mistakes, but we are talking about trivial things compared with his opponents. In a season when you are going that fast, the occasional mistake can happen. Overall, he has raced with impressive calmness and consistency.”
George Russell, by contrast, appears to Valsecchi to have encountered increasing difficulties as Antonelli’s level continued to rise.
“Yes. Kimi’s speed surprised him a lot, in my opinion. And now it seems Russell is finding things more difficult even in terms of the natural way he approaches situations. When your team-mate makes certain things look simple, it can become even more complicated for you.”
Monte Carlo and Monza stand out as Antonelli’s defining races
Valsecchi identified two performances as the major landmarks of Antonelli’s season.
“For me, he has laid down two milestones. The victory in Monte Carlo, where he dominated with incredible calmness and opened enormous gaps, something very rare in recent years. And then Monza, with that comeback where he was overtaking his rivals almost as if they were cones.”
The Monza performance in particular ranks among the best Valsecchi says he has watched in person.
“Since I have been watching Formula 1 live, I think I have seen four or five performances at that level. Certain comebacks from Verstappen or Vettel come to mind. What Kimi did at Monza belongs to that type of performance that you remember for years.”
Antonelli has not always been immune to pressure
Despite praising his composure, Valsecchi warned against assuming everything has always come naturally to Antonelli.
“Be careful about saying everything comes easily to him. In the past he made significant mistakes. At Monza, on his debut in an official Formula 1 weekend, he ended up in the barriers. Last year at Imola as well, with friends, family and the Italian crowd, he felt the pressure a lot. So he is not infallible.”
Valsecchi believes experience and Antonelli’s first victory may have played an important role in his development.
“He has probably worked on this too. Another year of experience makes you stronger, and perhaps the first victory freed him: once you have already proved that you can win, you can think, ‘I’ve done the hardest part.’ From that point, if the car is capable of winning, you win; if it is capable of third, you finish third.”
That does not mean Antonelli feels no pressure.
“No. He has shown in the past that he can feel it. But this year he has managed it extremely well and has been practically infallible. And I am convinced he will not throw anything away now. In fact, in the most important moments he has often seemed to be the best version of himself.”
Why Monte Carlo impressed Valsecchi so much
For Valsecchi, Monaco remains the clearest example of Antonelli’s ability to deliver when the pressure is at its highest.
“Yes. What he did in Monte Carlo was something I hadn’t seen for years: pulling away like that, with that superiority and calmness, is something extremely rare. And Monza, in the same way, is one of those performances I can count on one hand among those I have seen live.”
‘Kimi has killed Russell, sporting-wise’
Asked what Antonelli possesses at the age of 20 that appears most exceptional, Valsecchi ultimately returned to pure speed.
“Aside from the mental aspects, which will have to be verified over time, I would say without doubt the speed. Last year Russell was considered at the same level as drivers such as Leclerc or Norris, one of the potential world champions. Kimi this year has killed him, sporting-wise.”
Valsecchi believes Antonelli’s pace has also had a psychological effect on Russell.
“Yes. I think the speed Antonelli showed from the first races progressively demoralised Russell. When you can no longer match your team-mate, you start looking elsewhere: you try different set-ups, you search for something in the car and risk entering a negative spiral.”
Pure speed remains the foundation of Antonelli’s advantage
For Valsecchi, none of Antonelli’s mental qualities would carry the same significance without the raw pace underneath them.
“For me, yes. You can be intelligent and incredibly strong mentally, but if you are good enough to finish seventh, it changes nothing. Antonelli is fast enough to put drivers in difficulty who, until yesterday, we considered potential world champions. Then he adds all the other mental qualities on top of that speed.”
How George Russell can respond in 2027
Despite the scale of Russell’s defeat this season, Valsecchi expects the Briton to return believing he can reverse the situation.
“Drivers at that level have enormous confidence in themselves. Russell will go on holiday, come back and convince himself that he can beat Antonelli. He will build whatever explanation is necessary to believe that there were particular circumstances this year and that next year can be his year.”
That mentality, Valsecchi explained, is part of what allows elite drivers to compete at Formula 1 level.
“Yes. To operate at that level, you also have to be special mentally. You have to find something inside yourself that allows you to keep believing you can win, even after a heavy defeat. That Russell will try again is guaranteed in my opinion. Whether he can actually beat Antonelli is another matter.”
Valsecchi nevertheless believes the psychological damage from 2026 could be significant.
“A lot. That is what worries me most for Russell. It is not guaranteed that a driver can always recover from a season in which his team-mate has beaten him so clearly. But the people who reach Formula 1 are special people and they can react even to situations like that.”
Russell needs to challenge Antonelli immediately
According to Valsecchi, the first tests and races of 2027 could be critical for changing the dynamic inside Mercedes.
“The fundamental thing would be to arrive at the first tests and beat Antonelli in terms of speed. If he can do that, he can undermine some of the confidence Kimi has built this year. But if you arrive at the first race and Antonelli is still ahead, then you risk being finished because exactly the same story immediately begins again.”
The task could become even harder if Antonelli begins next season as the reigning world champion.
“Exactly. Antonelli will have another year of experience and, above all, the confidence that comes from having become champion. We saw how much he grew after his first victory: as soon as he got one, others followed. Imagine how much he could grow after winning a World Championship.”
Valsecchi recalls his own championship experience
Valsecchi also drew on his own experience of entering the decisive stages of a championship fight, recalling his GP2 title contest with Luiz Razia.
“When I was fighting for the GP2 title against Luiz Razia, I arrived at the final weekend knowing that certain combinations would be enough for me. I swear I practically didn’t think about it. I told myself: ‘I’m leading the championship, I’ve beaten him many times, why should I worry now?’”
For that reason, he believes the mathematical permutations will also become secondary for Antonelli.
“Yes. In the end, fourth place was enough for me and I finished exactly fourth, but not because I was driving for that result. When you have built up the advantage throughout the entire season, you have already done the difficult part. In my opinion, Antonelli is in exactly this situation.”
Valsecchi expects Antonelli to keep attacking
Rather than becoming nervous as the title approaches, Valsecchi expects Antonelli to enjoy his current run of form.
“I think he will mainly be excited by the fact that he can continue racing well. When you are in such a positive moment, you almost don’t want winter to arrive. I remember that when my season ended, I was angry because I didn’t have any more races to do.”
Asked whether that meant little fear and a strong desire simply to keep racing, Valsecchi concluded: “In my opinion, yes. He will continue to focus on being the best Mercedes driver and bringing home points even when the car is not the strongest. Being the driver who can always extract the maximum gives enormous confidence to the driver and, above all, to the team.”
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