Mercedes and Toto Wolff could hardly have asked for a better start to Formula 1’s new regulatory cycle, but their dominant campaign is rapidly becoming more competitive than expected. Mercedes has won only two of the past five Grands Prix, while Ferrari reduced its deficit from 98 to 72 points across Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps and Budapest, increasing the pressure on the leaders of the 2026 Constructors’ Championship.
Reliability problems with the Mercedes power unit and several unfortunate incidents have prevented the team from fully converting an estimated two-to-three-tenths performance advantage over its closest rivals into points. At the same time, Kimi Antonelli is delivering the speed that was expected of him alongside a level of consistency and composure that few could have anticipated in only his second Formula 1 season. The impact of the W17 developments introduced around Zandvoort could shape the rest of the campaign, particularly after Ferrari and McLaren recovered approximately two tenths during the first major upgrade cycle.
Why Mercedes’ Constructors’ Championship lead is under pressure
The biggest weakness in the chain connecting Brackley and Brixworth is undoubtedly power-unit reliability. The retirements in Montreal and Barcelona, George Russell’s start problem in Budapest and the failure of Kimi Antonelli’s wheel shield at Silverstone — which was not engine-related — have cost Mercedes more than 70 points in the Constructors’ Championship. Those setbacks form part of the wider concern over the points Mercedes has left on the table during the opening half of the season.
These problems have reduced the overall effectiveness of the Mercedes package. Although the W17 has unquestionably been the fastest car during most race weekends, technical failures have prevented that superiority from being translated consistently into championship points. That is the main reason Ferrari remains within striking distance.
Ferrari also deserves credit for maximising its opportunities more effectively than its direct rival and reaching a stronger position than initially expected. The team’s largest losses have come from Charles Leclerc’s two technical retirements and, more generally, a braking system with which the Monegasque driver has yet to feel completely comfortable.
Kimi Antonelli’s pace exposes George Russell’s final-sector deficit
Kimi Antonelli has encountered no comparable difficulty extracting performance from the Mercedes W17. Despite scoring no points in Barcelona and at Silverstone, the Italian has established a solid advantage over Lewis Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship. Autoracer previously analysed the differences between the two Mercedes drivers’ techniques, while the Budapest weekend provided further evidence of why Kimi Antonelli’s driving style appears better suited to the W17.
At a circuit that is not overwhelmingly dependent on power and energy management, the gap between Kimi Antonelli and George Russell approached three tenths of a second. The comparison becomes even more revealing when only the final sector from each qualifying session is considered: George Russell has been faster than his team-mate in that section on just two occasions across 11 race weekends.
Kimi Antonelli holds an average advantage of approximately one tenth in the final sector alone, compared with an overall qualifying margin of roughly 0.10–0.15 seconds. In other words, about 70 per cent of the gap between the Mercedes drivers is being created in the final part of the lap. At circuits such as Spa-Francorchamps and Silverstone, the difference has resulted from an energy shortfall affecting George Russell’s No. 63 car. At Monaco and Budapest, it was explained by a difference in the remaining life of the tyres.
This generation of Formula 1 cars makes life particularly difficult for the drivers because they must operate continually on the limit without leaving any margin for error. As several leading drivers have repeatedly explained, taking additional risks in Q3 does not necessarily produce a reward. During the opening months of the season, nobody has found the limit without exceeding it more effectively than Kimi Antonelli, and the results have reflected that ability.
George Russell’s difficulties do not appear close to being resolved. The British driver quickly dismissed the suggestion that his driving style could be having a negative effect on performance, but Mercedes will need a stronger contribution from its most experienced driver to protect its Constructors’ Championship advantage, even if reliability improves during the second half of the season. With the internal gap creating a potential Mercedes dilemma, George Russell could ultimately become the deciding factor in the title battle.
Mercedes enters a development war with Ferrari and McLaren
As Autoracer revealed last month, Mercedes was forced to revise its development programme for the current season following the substantial performance step made by the Ferrari SF-26. Toto Wolff’s team has consequently prepared another significant phase in its Mercedes W17 development plan.
Ferrari’s aerodynamic upgrades, concentrated around its Miami and Barcelona packages but not limited to those events, have delivered an overall improvement of approximately eight tenths. Changes to the power-unit software in Barcelona and the ADUO 1 development introduced at Spielberg also helped Ferrari gain more than two tenths relative to Mercedes between March and July.
Across the past five Grands Prix, the difference between the Mercedes W17 and Ferrari SF-26 has ranged from approximately 0.15 to 0.20 seconds in both qualifying and race conditions. Ferrari has made particularly significant progress on the straights, helping to explain the team’s strong performances at Silverstone and Spa-Francorchamps, where the evolved SF-26’s strengths were especially clear.
McLaren’s package should not be underestimated either. Despite numerous reliability problems and the complications associated with being a customer team, the MCL40 is currently much closer to Ferrari than Ferrari is to Mercedes. During the final weekend before the summer break, Andrea Stella identified a crucial target: McLaren requires approximately half a second of improvement to remain capable of winning races through to Abu Dhabi while matching the development rate of the other leading teams.
Mercedes intends to defend its advantage over both challengers with a major upgrade package scheduled for Singapore. The team can also decide whether to introduce the new power-unit specification permitted under ADUO 1. Ferrari’s planned Monza power-unit boost could further reduce Mercedes’ engine advantage from September onwards.
Until its larger package arrives, Mercedes must effectively survive the sequence from Zandvoort to Sepang with one fewer development package than its direct rivals. With Ferrari and McLaren closing in and George Russell struggling to match Kimi Antonelli, the margin protecting Mercedes at the top is now less than two tenths — and the Constructors’ Championship is no longer looking as secure as it did during the opening races.
