Singapore GP: will high downforce be enough to wake up the MCL39?
With 35 and 26 points gained over Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris respectively between Monza and Baku, curiosity about a possible comeback from Max Verstappen in the fight for a fifth consecutive world title has risen dramatically on the eve of the Singapore Grand Prix. The Dutchman had already been counted out of the title race after his zero points in Spielberg, but could the last two victories have changed the situation completely? The high-downforce nature of Singapore, a characteristic that has rewarded McLaren throughout the season, could again prove decisive for the MCL39. However, considering the difference between the drivers, Red Bull will need a car that can at least get closer to the performance level of the papaya-colored McLaren, with Verstappen expected to make the difference – as he did in Suzuka and Baku. Meanwhile, the fight for second place in the Constructors’ Championship is heating up between the third and fourth strongest teams: Mercedes overtook Ferrari in the Azerbaijan weekend, and on paper, the Singapore GP could still suit the characteristics of the W16.
Singapore GP: McLaren extends the gap on medium and high downforce tracks, but is there hope for Red Bull or Ferrari?
From the very first weekend of the season it became clear that McLaren’s strongest weapon was its performance through medium-speed corners with wide radius, thanks to the car’s excellent stability in loaded conditions. These qualities were less important at Monza and Baku, but in Singapore things will change again. After two low-downforce tracks, the trend is now reversed, and on high-downforce layouts, the MCL39 has been untouchable. Compared with other top teams, McLaren’s advantage in qualifying rises from around two tenths (and only one over Red Bull) on low-downforce circuits to nearly four tenths on high-downforce ones. Especially since the summer, with the introduction of technical directives and subsequent updates, McLaren has looked increasingly dominant at high downforce and less effective at low downforce tracks.
After the summer break, however, other factors have come into play, such as the RB21’s floor updates, which allowed Max Verstappen to win convincingly in Italy and Azerbaijan. Now the biggest test arrives: will Red Bull be on the same level as McLaren in Singapore? Between Budapest and Zandvoort, two similar tracks despite the second being slightly more favorable to the RB21, there was a recovery of half a second, which gives Laurent Mekies’ team hope. A victory in Singapore would be even more surprising than Baku and would pile enormous pressure on Norris and Piastri in the closing stages of the season. Between the two McLaren drivers, there is exactly one race’s distance in the standings; Norris has won here before and finished second, while for Piastri it is another ‘taboo’ track, similar to Barcelona and Zandvoort, where he ultimately triumphed.
Ferrari’s prospects and the fight for second place
The chances of a Ferrari victory in 2025 appear slim after yet another disappointment. The team’s last realistic hope is to defend second place in the Constructors’ standings, despite again lacking a car on par with McLaren and Red Bull. Persistent one-lap struggles are especially visible on high-downforce tracks like Marina Bay, where Mercedes and McLaren tend to pull away – gaining about a tenth and a half more than on medium- and low-downforce circuits – with Red Bull also looking stronger. Technical directives introduced between Barcelona and Montreal briefly gave Ferrari an edge over direct rivals, and the updated suspension in Spa offered some improvement, but it hasn’t been enough to make the SF-25 truly competitive. The car continues to suffer from a very narrow operating window.
Too often, including at the latest round in Baku, performance drops significantly between Friday and Saturday, undermining Ferrari’s chances of a good result. In seeking peak performance, it is as if the SF-25’s operating window shuts completely, leaving even the drivers struggling. The team therefore relies heavily on its drivers, especially Charles Leclerc, who has delivered an outstanding season so far. The Monegasque came close to victory at the Hungaroring before the usual issues struck again. Along with Las Vegas, Singapore represents one of the last real chances for Ferrari to aim for the top step of the podium, though the Scuderia will not arrive as the first or even second favorite.
Mercedes: the dark horse for second place
Mercedes should not be underestimated either. The team finished second and fourth just two weeks ago and has been the second strongest team in qualifying on circuits dominated by slow corners. Unlike previous years, the strength of the W16’s rear end has become one of Brackley’s biggest assets. Ferrari’s double zero at Zandvoort and Mercedes’ excellent Azerbaijan weekend allowed them to leapfrog the Italians in the standings. However, performance has tended to decline in recent months alongside rising track temperatures. A strong showing in Singapore could lay the foundation for a determined defense of second place in the Constructors’ Championship. One of the key factors for the season finale will be Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who has been steadily improving since the summer break, particularly when compared with George Russell’s pace over the last three races.
Singapore GP: scattered thunderstorms could shape the weekend, C6 tyres excluded due to heat
The weekend weather forecast suggests a high probability of scattered thunderstorms from Friday to Sunday, and this will undoubtedly be one of the biggest factors to consider at the Singapore Grand Prix. The last wet qualifying in 2022 showed how track evolution in intermediate tyre conditions can prove decisive – Charles Leclerc took pole position that day – and we could see a repeat scenario this year. Despite the layout change a few years ago, starting from pole on Saturday will be crucial, as following another car closely will be extremely difficult due to heat or possible rain. It is also worth noting that the pit lane speed limit has now increased to 80 km/h, meaning drivers lose slightly less time during pit stops and the Safety Car window becomes narrower in race conditions.
Pirelli explained that the C6 compound was excluded because the loads placed on the tyres and the elevated track temperatures at Singapore could have created overheating issues, an assessment made before the summer break. Instead, the C3, C4 and C5 compounds will be available in dry conditions: the medium and hard will be the main race tyres, while the soft will only be used in extreme cases for maximum grip. Strategy will remain an open question until race day, dictated largely by traffic management and the pace difference between the leaders and the midfield. Last year some drivers stretched the opening stint on mediums until lap 40 or beyond. Safety Cars and Virtual Safety Cars, especially in the early laps, will again be a decisive factor.
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