The Anglo-German team has consistently suffered from chronic rear-end instability throughout the ground-effect car generation. Will 2026 finally put things right?
It has been repeated to exhaustion by now: ground-effect cars became far too sensitive and, in some respects, unmanageable for engineers, with fundamental characteristics that differed significantly from those of previous generations.
This situation pushed many teams into difficulty, most notably Mercedes, which never truly became a consistent frontrunner over these four seasons. Data correlation between wind tunnel and track became increasingly problematic, as ground effect required extreme suspension layouts that were highly sensitive to external variations. Next year, this issue could be partially mitigated, mainly thanks to the introduction of active aerodynamics.
F1 2026: will reduced Venturi effect make cars more “natural” again?
The Venturi effect helped generate significant downforce from the floor, which consequently became the primary source of aerodynamic load. For this very reason, the priority for engineers and designers was to ensure the most stable aerodynamic platform possible, leading to the adoption of very stiff suspension concepts.
At the same time, however, with such a rigid mechanical setup, the centre of pressure of the cars became anchored towards the rear. Before 2022, cars exploited load transfers and pitch phases to shift, albeit in a limited way, the dynamic balance of the single-seater, producing a more manageable behaviour in slow corners. Over the past four years, this approach has no longer been possible in the same way.
As a result, we witnessed an increase in understeer in slow corners, combined with difficulties in rotating the car. Whereas previously teams aimed for a compromise between aerodynamic and dynamic balance, recent seasons clearly favoured the former. This was precisely the main issue faced by Mercedes.
Many teams found an advantage in flexible wings. Through passive deformation of the wing profiles, high front-end load could be maintained during corner entry, while the balance shifted rearwards in high-speed corners, improving stability. With the technical directive introduced in Spain, this advantage was removed, causing significant problems for the German manufacturer.
Next year, active aerodynamics will not act directly on this specific issue. The front and rear profiles will only be allowed to open on the straights, offering reduced drag rather than the dynamic balance benefits previously provided by flexible wings. However, with the expected reduction in overall downforce, car behaviour during corner entry, mid-corner and exit will once again become a fundamental performance factor.
In 2025, we saw a clear advantage for McLaren initially, and later Red Bull, in low-speed corners, which are the most challenging for ground-effect cars. Next year, thanks to the possibility of adopting less rigid suspension layouts, the operating window in these sections should widen, potentially reducing the gap between different aerodynamic concepts. In high-speed corners, on the other hand, particularly due to the reduced downforce generated by the cars, we may observe more pronounced differences between those who develop a winning aerodynamic package and those who do not.
F1 2026: power unit effectiveness will be the real key
Even though the aerodynamic concept will undergo major changes, the most significant innovations will be concentrated in the power unit. The technical regulations impose a rechargeable energy limit of 8.5 MJ per lap, compared to the 2 MJ allowed in previous years. With the introduction of Overtake Mode and Boost Mode, strategic management of the available power will become crucial.
Overtake Mode will replace DRS. When within one second of the car ahead, drivers will be able to access an additional power boost worth 0.5 MJ. At the same time, this extra energy will be drawn from the battery, meaning that its use would result in reduced energy availability on the following lap. Boost Mode works in a similar way, allowing drivers to deploy the maximum power provided by both the internal combustion engine and the electric component at their discretion.
The area where the greatest advantage can be built is the efficiency of the MGU-K. Within a single lap, some manufacturers may be able to recharge the amount of energy permitted by the regulations more quickly. Through braking management, a more efficient power unit could store more energy in specific sections of the track, significantly reducing the need to run at partial throttle. This would translate into faster lap times, a benefit that is far from negligible.
It is no coincidence that Christian Horner proposed the idea of using the internal combustion engine as a generator, converting thermal energy into electrical energy. Part of the ICE’s output would therefore be diverted to the battery, reducing the power sent directly to the wheels. Everything will change from circuit to circuit. Depending on average speed and the presence of slow corners, teams will develop different recharging strategies, potentially making more frequent use of Boost Mode.
All of this could lead to the engine running at higher revs, both during cornering phases and lift-off periods. Setting aside the debate around compression ratios, which has been heavily amplified by the media, Mercedes appears to hold a clear advantage in electric power management. Achieving a compression ratio of 18:1 or higher through thermal expansion of piston head materials is extremely difficult to manage.
While the air-fuel mixture would benefit from improved conditions, from a mechanical standpoint the increased stress on components caused by higher temperatures and pressures raises serious reliability considerations. The technical importance of such a solution should not be underestimated, as it would theoretically deliver improved thermal efficiency, more power for the same amount of fuel and reduced fuel consumption. However, a degree of common sense is required in light of the figures that have emerged.
As the 2026 technical revolution nears, Mercedes stands at a crossroads between its recent chassis struggles and its historical engine prowess. By moving away from the ultra-stiff requirements of the ground-effect era, the team finally has an opportunity to provide its drivers with a more predictable and “natural” car balance. However, the true battle will likely be won in the electrical efficiency of the new power units, where Mercedes’ ability to manage high-energy deployment and rapid recovery could once again place them at the front of the grid. If Brackley can successfully marry a more compliant suspension philosophy with a class-leading MGU-K, the frustrations of the last four years may quickly become a distant memory.
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