McLaren could be one of the Formula 1 teams with the greatest room for improvement during the second half of the 2026 season. Not necessarily because the Woking team produced the best interpretation of the new regulations from the outset, but because it appears to possess the tools, technical structure and personnel required to keep extracting more performance from the MCL40.
A technical analysis presented in Race Tech #162 compared the development potential of McLaren and Red Bull, reaching a fairly clear conclusion: when it comes to their current improvement trajectories, McLaren appears more convincing than Red Bull. The question is therefore not simply which team has the faster car today, but which one can develop it more effectively over the coming months.
McLaren did not fully master the 2026 regulations, but it can still improve
The starting point is important. According to the analysis, McLaren did not interpret the new 2026 technical regulations perfectly from the beginning. That does not, however, mean the team is destined to remain behind.
On the contrary, the Woking operation has already shown that its technical structure can identify areas of the car that need attention and translate that understanding into performance. That could prove decisive during the remainder of the season, particularly after the MCL40 upgrades helped restore McLaren’s winning pace in Hungary.
Development ability does not depend exclusively on finding the best aerodynamic solution immediately. It also involves progressively understanding the car, identifying where untapped potential remains and then exploiting that margin through effective updates.
Why the 2026 F1 regulations offer more development opportunities
One reason the comparison between McLaren and Red Bull is particularly interesting is the nature of the 2026 cars themselves.
Under the previous ground-effect regulations, a very significant proportion of aerodynamic load was generated by the bodywork and, above all, the floor. In 2026, several other aerodynamic components have regained greater importance, including the front wing, rear diffuser, rear wing, tunnel entrances and the areas inside the rear wheels.
This gives teams more individual areas in which to search for additional downforce while simultaneously trying to maintain or even improve aerodynamic efficiency. For McLaren, that represents a significant opportunity.
Upgrades do not necessarily have to amount to a complete revolution of the car. Engineers can progressively work on several areas, combining smaller improvements until they produce a meaningful overall increase in performance. McLaren’s recent programme has already demonstrated how a sequence of changes can influence the competitive picture, with the team continuing to pursue major aerodynamic developments for the MCL40.
Not every Formula 1 upgrade delivers the same gain
It is nevertheless essential to distinguish between normal aerodynamic development and a genuine design revolution. An intervention on that scale can produce an enormous performance step.
By contrast, altering the second or third flap of a rear wing, working on local vortex structures or refining the three-dimensional effects generated by the wing will deliver much smaller gains. The improvement might amount to a tenth of a second, or even less.
In Formula 1, however, even a single tenth becomes important when it is combined with a series of other developments. That is where a team’s development capability becomes crucial.
Why McLaren’s 2026 development potential looks stronger than Red Bull’s
The assessment from Race Tech #162 is clear: McLaren can currently be expected to show greater continuity in its improvement than Red Bull.
The reasoning is not based solely on the present performance of the cars. Although McLaren may not have interpreted the regulations perfectly at its first attempt, the team appears to have the infrastructure, design resources and personnel required to continue developing the car effectively.
That ability has already been visible through the upgrades introduced during the season. McLaren therefore appears to have an interesting development curve: it can begin with a car that does not necessarily represent the ideal interpretation of the regulations and gradually improve it through a succession of targeted changes.
The recent progress of the MCL40 reinforces that argument. McLaren’s Hungary developments were substantial enough to exceed expectations during its Hungarian Grand Prix victory, offering evidence that the team can convert aerodynamic development into measurable performance.
Red Bull faces a different development problem
The comparison with Red Bull is particularly revealing. The Milton Keynes team has demonstrated over recent years that it can produce extraordinarily fast Formula 1 cars. According to the Race Tech analysis, however, the current Red Bull may still be some distance from the type of “relative maximum” that allows a car to make a genuine leap in performance.
The term describes a situation in which a team discovers a particularly effective design solution and can subsequently build a much more competitive car around that foundation. In Red Bull’s case, that relative maximum does not yet appear to have been reached.
That assessment fits with the broader picture of an RB22 that has made progress without consistently returning to the level expected of Red Bull. The team’s 2026 mid-season development picture has shown improvement, but also highlighted how much performance remains to be unlocked.
Max Verstappen cannot completely hide the Red Bull’s limitations
There is also an interesting element involving the drivers. Historically, Red Bull has often produced cars capable of extraordinary performance in Max Verstappen’s hands while the driver in the second car struggled enormously to find the correct set-up compromise.
When a car is extremely sensitive and difficult to place within its optimal operating window, the performance gap between two team-mates can become enormous.
In 2026, however, periods in which Max Verstappen and his team-mate have been relatively close can also be interpreted as an indication that Red Bull is not operating at its maximum performance level. Max Verstappen continues to demonstrate that he can find additional speed in certain circumstances, but he is not systematically dominating the internal comparison to the degree seen in some previous seasons.
The progress made with Red Bull’s second car has also become an important element of the team’s broader technical picture, with Isack Hadjar’s development providing another reference point for assessing the RB22.
McLaren has also built a stronger technical structure
There is another factor that makes McLaren’s future particularly interesting. The team’s technical organisation has been strengthened in recent years by the arrival of personnel who previously worked at Red Bull.
The comparison made during Race Tech #162 is particularly striking: in terms of personnel, the current McLaren organisation was described almost as a version of Red Bull from three or four years ago.
That does not automatically mean McLaren will dominate. It does, however, suggest that the team possesses technical and organisational expertise that could become especially valuable while the regulatory cycle remains young and development rates are potentially high.
The real challenge is finding the car’s ultimate limit
The new regulations make rapid development possible. Teams can work on the front wing, rear wing, diffuser, tunnel entrances and the areas around the rear wheels. Each individual modification may provide only a relatively small improvement, but a series of well-correlated updates can significantly alter the behaviour and performance of the car.
Development capability could therefore become almost as important as the quality of the initial design. On that measure, McLaren currently appears to offer greater guarantees.
Could McLaren surprise Red Bull in the second half of 2026?
There is obviously no certainty, but the technical analysis from Race Tech #162 points towards a specific conclusion: McLaren could have a more robust development curve than Red Bull during the remainder of 2026.
Red Bull still has considerable scope to improve its car, but it needs to discover the design solution capable of taking the RB22 to another level of performance. McLaren, by contrast, appears already to have demonstrated an ability to turn development work into tangible gains.
In a season where the regulations remain relatively young, that could become a major advantage. The decisive question is therefore not simply which team has the better car at this moment, but which operation will be able to develop its package most effectively over the months ahead.
According to the analysis, the answer currently points more towards McLaren than Red Bull.
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