Which drivers could lose their seats in Formula 1 in 2026?. The Formula 1 driver market for 2026 is wide open.

Who are the 5 drivers at risk in 2026?

There are five drivers whose future appears uncertain: Liam Lawson, Franco Colapinto, Valtteri Bottas, Lewis Hamilton and Esteban Ocon. The driver market is open, and a lack of consistency or less-than-stellar results can sometimes work against even experienced names.

The driver market situation: five drivers under pressure

The Formula 1 driver market for the 2026 season is officially open, and as always there will be winners and losers. Only a handful of drivers already have a seat guaranteed for the following year, while the future of others appears to be at risk. Among those facing uncertainty are Liam Lawson, Franco Colapinto, Valtteri Bottas, Lewis Hamilton and Esteban Ocon.

Franz Tost, former team principal of Toro Rosso and AlphaTauri, believes that drivers should be given the chance to prove their potential over at least three seasons, ideally with the same team. Continuity with a single outfit is, in his view, a fundamental element when it comes to properly evaluating a driver’s talent.

Liam Lawson

The 2026 season will represent Liam Lawson’s fourth year in Formula 1, but his fragmented career path so far has not helped the New Zealand driver. He competed in five races in 2023 and six in 2024, before being promoted to Red Bull at the start of 2025, a stint that lasted only two races, followed by a return to Racing Bulls. There, he had to adapt to a car he was not familiar with. A lack of continuity has therefore worked against him.

As a result, according to Franz Tost’s philosophy, it is highly unlikely that the best of Lawson has already been seen. On the other hand, the promising results he achieved at the end of the season, comparable to – and in some cases almost better than – those of his team-mate Isack Hadjar, are an encouraging sign. This year Lawson will be the senior and more experienced driver: despite being only 23 years old, he will line up alongside rookie Arvid Lindblad, a highly rated young debutant.

With a full pre-season now behind him, Lawson should have the preparation he needs. However, Racing Bulls remains a stepping stone towards a potential Red Bull seat. His challenge will therefore be to deliver excellent results, giving himself two possible options: convincing Red Bull or attracting the interest of another team on the grid.

Franco Colapinto

Although his contract appears to be long-term, Franco Colapinto could still face an uncertain future at Alpine, also due to his inconsistent performances and a lack of continuity. Initially signed for just six races, he then partnered Pierre Gasly until the end of the 2025 season and was subsequently confirmed for 2026.

Flavio Briatore, executive advisor to the team, has shown some scepticism towards the Argentine driver: “This year we have a completely new car and we need two drivers. Franco will therefore have to prove that he is up to the task and achieve better results than last season, otherwise his future will be at risk.” He continued: “It is important that he shows his talent immediately, trying to match the excellent results of his team-mate, whose contract has been extended until 2028.” Colapinto will also have to keep an eye on Alex Dunne, former McLaren junior driver, who is reportedly in talks with Alpine.

The five drivers at risk: Valtteri Bottas

Valtteri Bottas’s future may depend less on his own performances, given that he has demonstrated his talent and consistency over the years, and more on other potential candidates such as Colton Herta, a leading IndyCar title contender. Herta has recently left the IndyCar series and returned to Formula 2 in the hope of reaching Formula 1. Moreover, with Herta, the American team would have a home-grown talent in its line-up.

Cadillac’s interest will therefore be to help Herta secure the 40 Super Licence points required to enter Formula 1. Another factor putting Bottas’s future at risk is sponsorship, which is crucial for all F1 teams. While Bottas’s team-mate Sergio Perez brings significant sponsorship backing, the Finnish driver does not. This aspect alone could end up working against him.

Lewis Hamilton

The British driver has stated that he has a fairly long-term contract with Ferrari. However, if he were to deliver disappointing results similar to those of last season, his seat might not be guaranteed. The Italian team has repeatedly shown that it is not afraid to part ways with champions: Alain Prost was famously dismissed after making unflattering comments about the 1991 car.

A similar fate befell Kimi Räikkönen, despite winning the world championship with Ferrari, as he was replaced first by Fernando Alonso and later by Charles Leclerc. Sebastian Vettel was also forced to leave the team at the end of 2020. A potential rival for Hamilton could be Ollie Bearman, a young talent from the Ferrari Driver Academy.

That said, Lewis Hamilton has always shown throughout his career that he can adapt to different cars and deliver excellent results. In this respect, the oversteering nature of the SF-26 could prove decisive for the seven-time world champion and ensure that he is not counted among the drivers at risk heading into 2027.

Esteban Ocon

Esteban Ocon’s contract with Haas runs until the end of 2026, although being beaten last season by rookie team-mate Ollie Bearman – even if by just three points – does not work in his favour. “What is really impressive about Ollie is his ability to drive very different cars,” said team principal Ayao Komatsu.

These were Komatsu’s words to the media, including PlanetF1.com: “Esteban is the opposite: he wants the car to have a certain style and has always demanded that from day one. He is fantastic when he has a car that he is completely happy with and that suits his driving style. Otherwise, he struggles to extract the maximum from the car, unlike Ollie.” It now remains to be seen what will happen in the driver market and which drivers will truly be at risk in 2027.