The 2025 Formula 1 World Championship is more exciting than ever, with Max Verstappen keeping fans on the edge of their seats. After the United States Grand Prix in Austin, the title race has narrowed dramatically. Charles Leclerc is no longer in contention, leaving Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and George Russell as the primary challengers.
Following the American weekend, Verstappen significantly reduced the gap to the championship leader Piastri, aided by McLaren’s double retirement in Saturday’s Sprint and his victory in the main race. Currently, Oscar Piastri leads his teammate by just 14 points, while Verstappen trails by 40 points.
Nothing is decided yet, and anything can happen. Considering that after the summer break Verstappen was over 100 points behind, the remaining five Grands Prix and two Sprints still offer 141 points on the table. Below are the possible scenarios for this thrilling finale.
Verstappen vs Piastri: the scenarios
Scenario 1 – Absolute Verstappen dominance
If Verstappen were to win all remaining Grands Prix and Sprints, he would earn 141 points. However, this would not automatically surpass Oscar Piastri if the Australian finished second in every race. Piastri would need only a single third-place finish in a race or Sprint for Verstappen to claim the championship. The final difference could narrow to just one point in favor of the four-time world champion.
Scenario 2 – Max Verstappen nearly perfect, Oscar Piastri consistent
If Verstappen wins four Grands Prix (100 points), secures a second place (18 points), and a Sprint (8 points), he would earn 126 points, bringing his total to 432. Meanwhile, Oscar Piastri, with three podiums and two fourth places, could gain around 78 points, plus 10 points from remaining Sprints, maintaining a narrow lead of two points. In this scenario, the Dutch driver would need a weak weekend or a McLaren retirement to take the championship.
Scenario 3 – Oscar Piastri always on the podium
If Oscar Piastri finishes on the podium in all five remaining Grands Prix, averaging 16 points per race, and scores in the Sprints for a total of around 90 points, Max Verstappen could recover only five points even if he wins three Grands Prix and one Sprint — insufficient to overtake the Australian.
Scenario 4 – A Piastri retirement
If Piastri retires from any of the remaining five races, a Max Verstappen victory would reduce the gap from 40 to 15 points. Should Verstappen then win three more races while Oscar Piastri continues to reach the podium, the championship fight would arrive in Abu Dhabi with a margin under 10 points, reminiscent of the dramatic 2021 finale.
Scenario 5 – Red Bull dominance, McLaren internal battle
If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri hinder each other while Verstappen continues winning, the gap could shrink by 30-40 points, bringing the title battle back to Yas Marina.
We don’t know what will happen, but fans are guaranteed an exhilarating conclusion to the 2025 Formula 1 season. The next chapter is ready to be written this Sunday at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City.
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