Liam Lawson is approaching the start of his adventure as a Red Bull driver alongside Max Verstappen. A complete challenge, not without risks, but one the Milton Keynes team has decided to take in the hope of having a second driver who is both fast and consistent. Let’s look at the data and numbers that led Red Bull to prefer him over Tsunoda.
After four years together, two of which were marked by more lows than highs, Sergio Perez and Red Bull parted ways at the end of 2024. It was an expected conclusion, which pushed the Anglo-Austrian team to look for an alternative, ultimately choosing Liam Lawson.
For the New Zealander, it will be an extremely demanding challenge, as many drivers in recent seasons have struggled in the complex Red Bull environment, facing a dominant Max Verstappen who has left little opportunity for his teammates. This is one of the reasons why the Milton Keynes team chose Lawson, considering him the driver with the strongest mental resilience among those ready to move up from the Junior Team.
However, at first glance, this choice seems at odds with Lawson’s limited F1 experience, having only competed in 11 Grands Prix between 2023 and 2024, both times replacing Daniel Ricciardo. He has never completed a full season in the top category, but in his internal battle with Yuki Tsunoda, he held his own—an element that played a crucial role in Red Bull’s decision.
It is no secret that Yuki Tsunoda long hoped for a promotion, repeatedly stating that he had done everything possible to earn the opportunity. However, while the Japanese driver showed significant improvement compared to 2021 and 2022, he never fully convinced Red Bull.
The prevailing belief was that Yuki Tsunoda had already reached his potential after four years at Faenza, while Lawson—who demonstrated similar performance levels in the few races they contested together—still had more room for growth.
The numbers from last season highlight how the performance gap between Verstappen and Perez was one of the widest on the grid, which undoubtedly cost the Milton Keynes team the chance to fight for the Constructors’ Championship.
Interestingly, the gap between Verstappen and Perez did not increase significantly from 2023 to 2024. However, with a car that was not as dominant as the RB19, Sergio Perez struggled to stand out. While the four-time world champion managed to drive around the RB20’s balance issues, Perez suffered the most, often finding himself stuck in the midfield or at the back of the top-team pack.
Red Bull does not expect Lawson to beat his new teammate in 2025, but the goal is to keep the gap within three-tenths per lap, ensuring consistent points finishes to support the team’s championship fight.
It is a daunting task. Helmut Marko acknowledged that Yuki Tsunoda was slightly faster than Lawson in terms of outright speed, but this may have actually worked against the Japanese driver. If the New Zealander was already that close after just a few races, then there is potential for even greater improvement.
Yuki Tsunoda is aware that his first two difficult years in F1 played against him, as he rarely managed to stand out against Pierre Gasly, who was far more experienced and consistent, despite some standout performances. This trend is clearly reflected in the graph below, which shows the average performance differences between Tsunoda and his various teammates during his time at Faenza.
However, Lawson’s progression is also evident, particularly when comparing his 2023 data—when he was thrown into the mix following Daniel Ricciardo’s injury—to his 2024 performances against Tsunoda. Last season, the gap in qualifying pace was significantly reduced, with an average difference of just 0.05 seconds. Similarly, the race pace gap also narrowed, leading Red Bull to believe that the two drivers were actually very close in terms of performance despite their differing levels of experience.
It is precisely this trajectory and margin for growth that led the Milton Keynes team to consider Lawson the best prospect to partner Verstappen in 2025. Added to this are his mental stability and adaptability, qualities Marko has repeatedly highlighted, emphasizing how well Lawson handled challenges both in the series he competed in before F1 and during his two stints with Racing Bulls.
The challenge against Verstappen is, of course, far greater than anything Lawson has faced so far, making the mental aspect even more crucial. The progress he has made and the data comparison with Tsunoda give Red Bull reason for optimism, but they do not yet guarantee that Lawson will be able to handle the immense task that awaits him alongside Verstappen in 2025.
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