The action resumes exactly where it left off a few days ago, with McLaren as the reference point for qualifying pace and the main favorite for the weekend’s victory. However, there is also awareness that not everything is so clear-cut, as the rivals are not that far behind—especially when analyzing the data more closely.
The Barcelona circuit has always been considered a kind of “open-air wind tunnel” due to its technical characteristics. With the removal of the final chicane, average lap speed has increased, making the track faster than in the past. This has made finding the right car balance even more critical, to avoid excessive instability, particularly in fast corners.
This is precisely where the analysis begins: the MCL39 did not impress in the faster sections, confirming pre-weekend expectations, as top-speed performance has never been a strong point of the Woking car. This is evident not only in Turn 9—one of the track’s most demanding corners—but also in the final corner, taken at around 270 km/h.
In both sections, the two McLaren drivers clearly modulated the throttle, lifting off by as much as 30%. This was a key topic during FP2, with several related radio messages from the drivers.
Having to lift more than the others is likely due to the car running low to the ground, which in ultra-fast sections causes the floor to compress further and scrape the tarmac, as was also visible in external footage.
It’s no secret that the MCL39 relies heavily on the downforce generated by its floor. For this reason, it’s possible the drivers weren’t chasing the absolute limit on Friday to avoid excessive bottoming out, which could cause instability. This ties into another point: McLaren opted for the lower-downforce rear wing of the two available.
It was an interesting choice, both because it helped better balance the car—reducing the understeer Oscar Piastri experienced in FP1 (initially running the higher-downforce version)—and because it allowed for higher top speeds on the straights, one of the few remaining weaknesses of the MCL39.
Much of McLaren’s advantage came in the first sector, particularly in the opening chicane, where both Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris were significantly more effective than their rivals. This confirms that the Woking squad can get the tyres into the right operating window immediately. Ferrari worked hard on this area compared to FP1: though still trailing, it managed to make progress and reduce the gap.
Curiously, McLaren didn’t seem that competitive in Turn 5, one of the track’s trickier corners, where understeer tends to push the car wide due to the slight camber. Here, all three of McLaren’s rival teams gained ground, and it will be interesting to see if anything changes on Saturday.
Although McLaren recovers between Turns 10 and 12, another pattern emerges: both Ferrari and Red Bull seem to be running very front-end-focused setups—something also mentioned by Lewis Hamilton over the radio. Having a precise front end can help, but it also risks unbalancing the rear—the opposite of what McLaren experienced on Friday.
Red Bull looking for rear-end stability, but remains confident
It’s no surprise, then, that both Verstappen and Leclerc made mistakes during their flying laps, mainly due to rear-end instability that affected driver confidence. For Verstappen, this was evident in Turns 1, 4, and 10, where lack of trust in the rear prevented him from being as aggressive as he wanted.
Conversely, stability improved as speed increased: it’s no wonder the Red Bull driver was among the fastest in high-speed corners, along with Mercedes, which has often made this section one of its strengths. Much of Verstappen’s gap stemmed from a few specific corners that are hard to fix.
At Red Bull, however, there is confidence. This Friday was better than others, and the performance leap from Friday to Saturday may not be as drastic as in past events. But if they can find just a couple of tenths—as they often do—the fight for pole could heat up.
Ferrari also seems to be running a very front-end-heavy car. Although Charles Leclerc finished half a second behind, that gap isn’t entirely representative, as the Monegasque lost around three tenths due to a mistake in Turn 7, where he had to manage the rear, costing him speed into Turn 9. In general, there were several moments of correction to control the rear.
Without that error, Leclerc likely would have set the second-fastest time of the day behind Piastri. The goal is to start from the front rows to avoid a complicated race. Interestingly, the SF-25 closed the gap in single-lap pace in the afternoon but took a step back over long runs, with Leclerc almost immediately complaining that the medium tyre was on the limit.
The car performs well in sections that require a strong front end, but the impression is that the SF-25 was set up quite aggressively on Friday, and a touch more balance is needed to avoid overworking the rear. It will be interesting to see which direction the setup goes on Saturday for the final adjustments.
There is, however, an unknown: Mercedes. The Silver Arrows were Friday’s surprise. After two underwhelming weekends, they seem to be back in classic Mercedes form, capable of becoming a serious threat in qualifying when they hit the right setup window—even for the favorites. They could pose a problem for Ferrari, because starting behind Mercedes (which struggled with tyre overheating in the long run) might have significant implications for the race.
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