Oscar Piastri’s Formula 1 future is becoming a hot topic as Red Bull rumours emerge, but experienced paddock figures believe leaving McLaren could be a risky move
Oscar Piastri may be approaching one of the most important decisions of his Formula 1 career, with speculation beginning to swirl around a possible blockbuster move involving Red Bull. As always in Formula 1, rumours can quickly gather momentum when top teams and elite young drivers are involved, especially when uncertainty exists around future driver market movements.
But while the prospect of a switch to Milton Keynes may sound attractive on paper, not everyone is convinced it would be the smartest move. Former Formula 1 team principal Otmar Szafnauer and ex-Ferrari engineer Rob Smedley have both urged caution, suggesting that walking away from McLaren at this stage could prove to be a serious mistake.
Otmar Szafnauer urges patience over Oscar Piastri’s future
According to Otmar Szafnauer, it remains far too early to make firm predictions about how the 2026 Formula 1 pecking order will evolve. Formula 1’s new regulations have reset the competitive balance, and while Mercedes currently appear to have the upper hand, the development race is still in its infancy.
“Last year, by mid-season, I thought he would win the title. It’s too early, we’re not even fully up to speed yet. It’s difficult to predict, which is why there’s such a big ‘if’ in all of this,” Szafnauer explained.
The former team boss also pointed to Formula 1 history as proof that even seemingly obvious assumptions can quickly unravel. He referenced Nico Rosberg’s 2016 championship triumph over Lewis Hamilton as a reminder that outcomes in Formula 1 are rarely as predictable as they first appear.
“I always thought Lewis Hamilton would beat Nico Rosberg, and then one year Nico Rosberg won the title and retired,” he said.
For Szafnauer, the key question is whether Oscar Piastri would genuinely improve his championship chances by leaving McLaren. While Red Bull remains one of Formula 1’s powerhouse teams, McLaren has spent the past two seasons building one of the strongest and most stable projects on the grid.
“Would you leave McLaren to try to win the world championship somewhere else? Oscar is a great driver, but Lando is as well. They’re evenly matched,” he added.
Rob Smedley highlights the risks of switching teams
Former Ferrari engineer Rob Smedley echoed similar concerns, particularly around the dangers of changing teams at the wrong moment. In Formula 1, timing can define careers, and what looks like a dream move can sometimes become a long-term setback.
Smedley praised McLaren’s technical progress, arguing that despite Mercedes’ current advantage, the Woking-based outfit has arguably been one of the strongest organizations in Formula 1 over the past two seasons.
“They’re recovering ground. Mercedes is ahead right now, but over the last two years they’ve probably been the best,” Smedley said.
He also pointed to a pattern repeatedly seen in the paddock, where high-profile driver transfers fail to deliver the expected rewards: “I’ve seen it many times: drivers change teams and it never really works out well,” he warned. That warning feels particularly relevant in Oscar Piastri’s case. At McLaren, he is already integrated into a team that knows him, trusts him, and continues to improve technically. A move to Red Bull could offer a different kind of opportunity, but also significant uncertainty.
Formula 1 history is full of examples where drivers left promising environments too early, only to find themselves trapped in projects that failed to deliver. For now, Oscar Piastri remains in an enviable position—but if the rumours intensify, he may soon be forced to make a defining career choice.
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