Just one penalty point could force Max Verstappen to miss the Austrian Grand Prix or the following round at Silverstone. The world champion’s situation is critical; in the next two race weekends, avoiding collisions won’t be enough, as the penalty point on his super license that could keep him out of a race can be given for even minor violations.
Examples include going too slowly during a cooldown lap in qualifying, failing to maintain a ten-car gap behind the safety car, unsafe release, impeding, or not maintaining the required speed during a Virtual Safety Car (VSC).
Red Bull is minimizing the issue, but the alarm has sounded. In Barcelona, the team mishandled the final race phases, putting Max in a difficult position, but his reaction was still unjustified considering the challenges he faced, and even Verstappen admitted and publicly apologized.
Yesterday Max went to Salzburg for a roadshow at Hangar 7 (the site where Dietrich Mateschitz created a true aviation museum), driving a 2012 RB8. The four-hour stop sparked rumors of a meeting with the top management of the Austrian group.
This would make sense, considering that for Red Bull, the prospect of not having Verstappen at the start of their home race is terrible, both in terms of potential results and the image of the Austrian group. For years, Spielberg has been one of the favorite destinations of the ‘orange army,’ tens of thousands of Dutch fans camping near the circuit and filling the grandstand on the straight between turns 2 and 3. Hosting them without Verstappen on track would not be the same.
Of course, everyone at Red Bull hopes these fears remain just that, but between Milton Keynes and Helmut Marko’s office in Graz, a Plan B must be developed. Recently, many hypotheses have taken shape, including sensational returns such as Sergio Perez or Daniel Ricciardo, or a Marko-style surprise: an early debut for Arvid Lindblad, a top junior driver currently racing in Formula 2. These are intriguing options, but the most realistic choice narrows to three names, with one somewhat surprising favorite.
From a purely technical standpoint, the natural choice to replace Verstappen for a single weekend would be Lawson. Liam has already raced two weekends with the team and, despite negative feedback that led to his exclusion at the end of the Shanghai weekend, he is the only candidate with experience driving the RB21, even if that experience was nightmarish.
However, paddock rumors say he didn’t leave a good impression, much like Pierre Gasly. Gasly was promoted to Red Bull in 2019 but was demoted back to Toro Rosso after the summer break. Returning to Faenza, Gasly showed great improvement, culminating in a sensational win at the 2020 Italian GP, but a Red Bull comeback was never seriously considered by Marko or especially Christian Horner, as confirmed by the decision to sign Sergio Perez.
Isack Hadjar’s strong start in Racing Bulls has made him one of the 2025 surprises, a rookie who adapted quickly to both the team and Formula 1. But something is changing in Marko’s view, possibly driven by Red Bull itself. Recent surprising comments defending Yuki Tsunoda go against the stance the Austrian manager has held for years.
Perhaps it has become clear that the frantic search for a new Verstappen has resulted in burning through several drivers quickly, from Gasly to Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz. According to recent Motorsport.com information, the plan is to keep Isack Hadjar’s development path intact, with no changes.
That leaves Iwasa, the 23-year-old Honda protégé who raced in Europe from 2021 to 2023 moving from F3 to F2. Iwasa holds a super license (thanks also to a fifth place in the 2024 Japanese Super Formula season) and has already driven Verstappen’s RB21 in Friday practice in Bahrain.
Last year he took part in Racing Bulls’ FP1 sessions at Suzuka and Yas Marina, also doing TPC tests and simulator work. Ultimately, the simplest solution (if needed) will be the natural one: to entrust Verstappen’s car to the team’s third driver.
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