Ferrari is not the only team struggling with simulation-to-track correlation, but Red Bull may already have a long-term answer in place
After Formula 1’s month-long break, Ferrari returned to Miami with an upgraded “evo” version of the SF-26 and the ambition of taking the fight to Mercedes, which has dominated the 2026 season so far.
Despite the extensive changes introduced by the Scuderia, the result was not what Maranello had hoped for. Mercedes, running its baseline W17 specification, still secured its fourth victory of the 2026 campaign, staying comfortably ahead of McLaren, Red Bull, and, of course, Ferrari, which now appears to have slipped to fourth in the competitive order.
In short, despite the anticipation and development effort, Ferrari gave the impression that it had not progressed enough to genuinely challenge its rivals.
That conclusion was reinforced by the lap time data from Miami, where Charles Leclerc recorded only the fifth-fastest lap, six tenths slower than Andrea Kimi Antonelli. A significant gap, driven primarily by Ferrari’s engine shortfall, which is estimated to be around 30 horsepower down on Mercedes. That is a deficit so substantial that Ferrari may only be able to meaningfully reduce it through additional power unit development under the ADUO mechanism, which the Scuderia is closely watching.
Race pace and simulations: Ferrari’s frustrating reality
There is little point avoiding the obvious: Miami was a harsh reality check for Ferrari after a break that had raised expectations, particularly because pre-weekend simulations suggested a much stronger level of competitiveness than what actually materialised on track.
Lewis Hamilton was particularly outspoken about this issue after the Miami Grand Prix.
“It’s a correlation issue,” Lewis Hamilton said. “We do simulations and then we go to the track and the car behaves differently. In China, I had my best weekend without using the simulator…”
That view was echoed by former Ferrari engineer Rob Smedley, who explained just how damaging poor correlation can be for a Formula 1 team: “It’s a demoralising experience, because it creates a vicious circle. If there’s no correlation, if the wind tunnel or simulator doesn’t match the track, then you have to start a reverse engineering process. That stops development: you waste time trying to understand why the car isn’t behaving properly instead of developing it. You’re screwed.”
Red Bull facing the same issue — but with one major difference
Ferrari, however, is not alone.
Red Bull has also been dealing with similar data correlation issues. After a difficult start to the season, the Milton Keynes-based team looked far more competitive in Miami thanks to a comprehensively revised RB22, returning much closer to the leading teams.
Even so, the team believes its progress could have been even greater if its engineers were not still battling long-standing correlation problems between track performance and wind tunnel data. The issue is believed to be linked to Red Bull’s ageing wind tunnel infrastructure, which is due to be replaced by a modern facility.
Red Bull technical director Pierre Waché addressed the topic in comments to Motorsport.com: “The correlation is getting better, but we are working with the same tools and we have the same problems. We are trying to maximise what we have and we’ll see. We have a new wind tunnel coming soon, and I hope it will allow us to take another step forward. Hopefully it will already be operational and we will be able to use it at the beginning of next year.”
It was a candid assessment from Pierre Waché, although he stopped short of giving a precise timeline for when the new facility will be fully operational.
That is perhaps the biggest difference between Ferrari and Red Bull right now: both are wrestling with correlation problems, but Red Bull can at least point to a concrete long-term solution already on the horizon.
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