Max Verstappen is a monster. He pulled a pole position out of nowhere in Japan and laid the foundation for a brilliant victory—his fourth in a row at Suzuka. The Dutchman is now just one point behind Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings after three races, a clear sign that the four-time world champion is a major threat to McLaren. No one dares to question Verstappen’s value—a driver whose “impossible” performances have become so authoritative that they even hide the car’s limitations.
If we were to judge Red Bull based on his new teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, we’d be tearing our hair out. The Japanese driver seemed on course for a podium in his debut with the RB21, but ended up outside the points, missing the goal he was brought in for after just two races, replacing the underwhelming Liam Lawson (who also disappointed at Racing Bulls). Yuki had tested the “wrong” version of the car in the simulator—easy to drive, but not fast. The Milton Keynes team flipped every setting overnight before qualifying, and Verstappen drew magic from a finally “correct,” though difficult, car to snatch pole by just 0.012 seconds. It’s no surprise, then, that Tsunoda struggled—he had a completely different F1 car than the one he had come to know.
It’s clear that Horner and Marko’s team is built around one car, because only Super Max can extract all the potential from a machine that needs a superstar to be competitive.
So, having acknowledged Max’s brilliance, it’s fair to ask how good the RB21 really is—especially now that it’s won its first GP at the third attempt. Red Bull came to Japan having done their “homework” wrong: the setup work in the simulator was flawed, which made it puzzling why the updates brought to Suzuka weren’t working, despite promising results in the wind tunnel meant to close the gap to McLaren.
Pierre Waché’s crew had the courage to completely overhaul the car’s setup—both mechanically (with a rebalanced weight distribution) and aerodynamically. Red Bull lowered the rear wing load after introducing a new engine cover designed to improve aerodynamic efficiency. The cooling gills on the sides of the “bazooka” disappeared completely, while the rear bodywork was tightened around the rear wing support to reduce drag and improve the effectiveness of the rear wing profiles.
On Friday, the engineers realized the wing they brought was too loaded. After a careful simulator session overnight from Friday to Saturday, they decided to switch to a lower-downforce version in search of higher top speeds—confident they had enough aerodynamic grip, while McLaren opted for a safer configuration, believing that the MCL39s would lock out the front row with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
But the masterpiece Verstappen pulled off in Q3 disrupted Andrea Stella’s plans. Once Max Verstappen took the lead—as he did—it became difficult for the papaya cars to overtake for two solid reasons: first, there was no tire degradation, despite Sunday’s 10-degree cooler conditions after morning rain and a green track; second, with only one DRS zone, a 0.7–0.8 second pace difference was needed to attempt a pass (source: Andrea Stella), and McLaren didn’t have that margin. That’s why there was no team order to let Oscar Piastri try an attack on Verstappen.
It’s clear that a series of events allowed the Dutchman to claim his 64th Grand Prix victory, but what hasn’t been fully recognized is how much Red Bull is actually improving. Our impression is that Milton Keynes has now found a development path—something Ferrari has yet to achieve. And the championship is starting to show a clearer picture of the real pecking order on the grid…
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