Mercedes is showing no signs of panic over Formula 1 upgrades, at least for now. Monza could become an important turning point in the 2026 season because the team believes the W17 can return to fighting for victory on low-downforce circuits, allowing it to wait for its next major development package. What Mercedes has found in the wind tunnel for Malaysia has reinforced that confidence.
Mercedes left the Dutch Grand Prix with a weekend that can be viewed from two very different perspectives. The negative is the growing realisation that McLaren and Ferrari now appear to have the advantage on circuits requiring high levels of downforce. The more encouraging side is not simply the championship points Mercedes gained over Ferrari, but the fact that it remains relatively close despite introducing very few substantial updates in recent months.
Mercedes has barely updated the W17 since Canada
Since the Canadian Grand Prix, Mercedes has introduced only relatively minor developments, particularly around its wings. The second major W17 upgrade package is instead expected to arrive in Malaysia at the beginning of October.
That development strategy differs significantly from those adopted by Ferrari and McLaren, both of which have continued to update their cars regularly and have steadily reduced the performance gap to Mercedes.
The progress made by McLaren has become particularly clear in recent races. After winning at Zandvoort, the Woking team is already preparing another upgrade package for Baku as it attempts to put further pressure on Mercedes.
It is now evident that the W17 lacks some outright aerodynamic load compared with its rivals in certain types of corners. Mercedes has compensated by leaning more heavily on the car’s existing strengths, particularly its top speed and its ability to attack corner entry in specific sections.
Those characteristics were clearly visible at Zandvoort. The Dutch circuit is hardly known for long straights, yet Mercedes was still capable of holding a top-speed advantage of around 10 km/h over its rivals and attacking aggressively on entry to the chicane.
Mercedes feels the gap but sees no reason to panic
In some respects, Mercedes is now playing a more defensive game, relying increasingly on the W17’s strongest characteristics. Even so, the return of Ferrari and McLaren has not yet triggered panic at Brackley.
There are several reasons for that confidence. The first is that Mercedes has continued to produce positive results even at circuits that do not particularly suit the W17’s strongest characteristics, giving the championship leaders some breathing space.
Across Hungary and the Netherlands, Mercedes collected three podium finishes in total, while Ferrari was unable to maximise its opportunities on circuits that appeared favourable on paper. Internally, Mercedes did not overlook the fact that both Ferrari and McLaren had an advantage in race pace, but these were also circuits where the team expected its rivals to be closer and potentially move ahead.
In a season where upgrade packages can deliver substantial performance gains, remaining capable of challenging for pole positions and podiums even at tracks that are not ideally suited to the W17 has two important consequences. First, it reinforces Mercedes’ belief that it can fight at the front on more favourable circuits. Second, it allows the team to wait rather than rushing developments to the car.
Toto Wolff has made no secret of the fact that Mercedes is currently behind its rivals in the development cycle and is following a different, slower timetable. He has linked that approach to the constraints created by the budget cap, with Mercedes acknowledging that its W17 upgrade programme is behind schedule compared with Ferrari and McLaren.
Both Simone Resta and James Allison have explained that Mercedes invested heavily in the car it brought to the start of the season, which changed the development scenario for the remainder of 2026.
Monza could play to the W17’s strengths even without upgrades
The limitations of the Mercedes package have started to emerge more clearly on high-downforce circuits. On faster tracks, however, the W17 has generally looked more comfortable, as seen at Spa and Silverstone.
Even at those venues, Mercedes no longer enjoyed the substantial advantage it had held earlier in the season, forcing the team to raise its level. Those races also demonstrated how carrying significant aerodynamic load and generating strong corner exits can have a greater effect on energy management than might initially appear.
Nevertheless, Mercedes believes it can return to fighting for victories on low-downforce circuits such as Monza even without introducing major new parts, instead exploiting the strengths already built into the W17.
That makes the Italian Grand Prix particularly important. If Mercedes can once again compete for victory without bringing a major upgrade, it would validate the decision to delay its next significant development step until Malaysia.
Championship lead allows Mercedes to think longer term
Mercedes’ position at the top of the championship also gives it the luxury of waiting. Ferrari, by comparison, has needed to continue introducing upgrades because of its clear Power Unit deficit and the need to increase pressure on Mercedes.
From several perspectives, Ferrari’s strategy has worked. Its continued development has prevented Mercedes from moving too much of its technical focus onto the 2027 car, forcing the Brackley team to continue balancing its current championship campaign against preparations for next season.
Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes Trackside Engineering Director, explained why leading the championship changes the team’s approach to upgrades.
“If we thought the championship depended on having upgrades at Zandvoort, we probably would have found a way to make that happen. We are in the enviable position of being in the lead, so it makes sense not to introduce as many new parts on the current car as competitors who are chasing. We need to remain competitive this year, but at the same time we also have to think about the next championship.”
Mercedes’ championship position remains a crucial part of that calculation, with the 2026 Formula 1 standings giving the team more freedom to manage its development programme strategically rather than react to every performance swing.
“Being ahead allows you to take a slightly longer-term view. We have made considered decisions about the most cost-effective route to get to the end of the season. After every race, though, we assess whether we are doing enough, whether we are bringing enough upgrades and whether anything can be brought forward.”
Why Mercedes believes the Malaysia upgrade can close the gap
The second reason for Mercedes’ confidence concerns what is still to come. Before the summer break, James Allison explained that the team’s wind-tunnel development rate was producing, on average, around half a second of performance for every two months of work, although the final gain also depends heavily on how and when those developments are introduced onto the car.
Part of the equation is that the overall development rate in 2026 is considerably higher than in previous seasons, which has a direct impact on how teams allocate their budget-cap resources.
For Mercedes, the conclusion is encouraging. The team believes the performance step expected from the upgrades scheduled for Malaysia and the Grands Prix that follow will be greater than its current deficit to Ferrari and McLaren.
Much will also depend on how much progress Mercedes’ rivals make in the meantime. Ferrari, for example, is continuing to develop its Power Unit under the ADUO framework and has targeted another performance step for Monza.
For now, however, Mercedes does not believe the situation has reached anything close to emergency level.
“We would be concerned if the performance deficit exceeded the gains we can see ready to come from the wind tunnel. That isn’t the case. We are reasonably confident that a large part of the current situation comes down to the timing of the upgrades, although Zandvoort still left us questioning whether we really extracted the maximum from the car,” Andrew Shovlin added.
That is why Mercedes remains calm despite Ferrari and McLaren closing the gap. The W17 is no longer dominant across every type of circuit, but its existing strengths could still make it a victory contender at Monza, while the larger development step scheduled for Malaysia gives Brackley confidence that the current deficit is temporary rather than structural.
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