The Brackley team is being cautious ahead of qualifying after seeing Oscar Piastri impress in FP2 at Suzuka. Despite not being perfectly optimized in terms of setup, the Mercedes W17 cars still appear untouchable when it comes to race pace.
Friday at Suzuka ended similarly to Melbourne: Oscar Piastri led the way, ahead of the Antonelli-Russell duo. Margins were incredibly tight—just 205 thousandths of a second between first and third—hinting at an unprecedented scenario: a Mercedes less dominant than in the previous Shanghai round.
In reality, there are many variables at play, and in the paddock there is near-unanimous confidence that tomorrow, when it counts, the two Mercedes cars will once again make the difference.
Race simulations support this view. Kimi Antonelli recorded the fastest pace at 1’34”780, roughly two tenths faster than Russell and nearly four tenths ahead of Piastri. In Piastri’s case, identifying his true race pace requires filtering out laps affected by traffic. After Charles Leclerc (1’35”440), the rest of the field falls further behind. However, all teams’ attention remains focused on qualifying.
Tomorrow promises to be crucial. Last year, Max Verstappen snatched pole from Lando Norris by just 12 thousandths, laying the foundation for his Sunday victory.
Mercedes does not want to take any risks: Sunday’s race will likely be a one-stop strategy, and the margin needed to complete an overtake on the main straight—the only feasible point if the opponent makes no mistake—is between eight tenths and a full second. Additionally, Suzuka is not a track to attempt risky moves; the success rate is low and the cost of an error can be very high.
Still, there are areas Mercedes needs to improve. “We’ve seen that we lose a bit exiting the final chicane,” explained chief engineer Andrew Shovlin. Indeed, data shows that McLaren gains ground specifically in the stretch from the final chicane to the finish line. Russell, and even more Antonelli, then recover in the following straights and in all zones with ‘superclipping,’ as expected.
“In terms of rhythm, it seems we’re in a reasonable position,” Shovlin added, “but McLaren and Ferrari showed very competitive performance throughout the day, so we cannot take anything for granted.”
“We managed to complete at least one long run on all three tire compounds, which gives us useful information for the race. There are a few things we can work on overnight to try and improve the car’s speed and balance, but overall we had a solid start.” Tomorrow’s qualifying leaves no room for reserves—not even within Mercedes.
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