Just two days remain until the start of the 2026 Australian Grand Prix weekend, and Melbourne promises the excitement fans have come to expect. Last year’s race was among the most chaotic and entertaining of the season, and with the 2026 rule changes reshuffling the competitive order, the season opener could be just as thrilling.
Although forecasts predict clear skies throughout the weekend, teams must remain alert: unpredictable rain is always a possibility in Australia this time of year. Bahrain testing suggested an open battle just behind Mercedes, the car to beat. Here are GP-News.net’s predictions for the Australian GP, to be taken with caution.
Favorites for the season opener
Mercedes is undoubtedly among the top contenders. Rumors suggest the Silver Arrows have yet to reveal their full potential and could dominate the field. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli delivered strong performances last year, and with a competitive car, both could be contenders for the top step of the podium. The Australian circuit has few overtaking opportunities, making qualifying results crucial. Russell, known for his single-lap speed, could be particularly effective, making it surprising if at least one Mercedes isn’t on the podium.
McLaren could also fight for a strong result. Few consider the 2025 world champion team a likely winner in Melbourne, but the MCL40 showed competitive pace in testing. Flavio Briatore, Alpine’s team principal, claimed that no Mercedes-powered team ran at full engine power during Bahrain testing. If true, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have excellent chances of scoring a major result.
Alpine could also target a solid finish, though a podium appears unlikely. Pierre Gasly remains the strongest candidate, capable on a qualifying lap and benefiting from the A526 chassis combined with the Mercedes power unit. Team mate Franco Colapinto could aim for a top ten finish; last season was challenging, but a competitive car could boost his confidence. Alpine remains an outsider behind the top four: Mercedes, McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari.
Ferrari deserves a special mention among the favorites. While testing results only tell part of the story, the SF-26 impressed with reliability. The compact turbo of the Ferrari power unit may also provide a key advantage at the race start. Both drivers are motivated, and fan confidence is high, with hopes of a strong start to the season.
Teams expected to struggle in Australia
Aston Martin leads the list of potential underperformers. Adrian Newey’s team may struggle to finish Sunday’s race due to persistent reliability issues. Even if they manage to start, performance will likely remain poor, particularly due to the Honda power unit, placing them firmly at the back of the grid.
Williams has faced difficulties, including missing the Barcelona shakedown. Despite Mercedes power, the car driven by Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon feels overweight, with suboptimal driver feedback. Cadillac appears similarly distant from the front, while Audi looks slightly better positioned but remains off the pace compared to top teams, according to Bahrain test data.
Red Bull also deserves mention. The new Red Bull-Ford power unit showed reliability but limited performance. Such a new project is unlikely to challenge for top positions in the season opener, although Max Verstappen could still influence results. The junior team, Racing Bulls, appeared particularly vulnerable during winter testing.
As the 2026 Formula 1 season begins, fans can expect thrilling battles, with new regulations adding unpredictability that makes the Melbourne season opener even more special.
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