How should Red Bull’s performance in the Australian Grand Prix qualifying be assessed? Often, evaluating a result requires putting it into context. The first post-Adrian Newey car is probably not as dominant as its predecessors. The issues, partly hidden during the Bahrain pre-season tests, emerged in full force—speaking from a sporting perspective—during the two free practice sessions. Both Max Verstappen and Liam Lawson struggled significantly.
The two drivers admitted that the problems they encountered were worse than expected—not a promising start to the 2025 season. However, the synergy between the Milton Keynes-based team and the reigning world champion managed to work a small miracle. Once again, Christian Horner’s team demonstrated its ability to completely overhaul the car’s setup, providing its star driver with a competitive machine.
Lawson’s Struggles
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the other side of the garage. Nothing seems to have changed alongside Verstappen, to the point that Lawson’s performance in qualifying was entirely comparable to Sergio Perez’s lackluster showings. This raises several questions: Max Verstappen’s exceptional talent is well documented, but is the RB21 really so difficult to handle for anyone paired with the Dutchman?
One thing is certain—Red Bull is the F1 team that does the most to tailor its car to suit its undisputed number-one driver. However, this was just the first qualifying session of the season, so the young New Zealander deserves a longer evaluation period, especially considering how long Sergio Perez’s underwhelming tenure lasted last year. Was Verstappen’s third place in qualifying a satisfactory result?
Contextualizing Performance Against McLaren
Whether the glass is half full or half empty depends on perspective. After the Bahrain tests, Red Bull did not expect to be McLaren’s main challenger. Placing the RB21 ahead of Ferrari and Mercedes is the positive takeaway from Saturday in Australia. However, the harsh reality is that the papaya-colored cars seemed to be competing in a different league.
It’s also important to note that both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri had to approach their final Q3 runs knowing they couldn’t afford any mistakes. It’s likely that the McLaren duo didn’t push to the absolute limit to avoid jeopardizing their weekend. In short, the MCL39 may have had even more potential, but its drivers aimed for strong lap times without taking unnecessary risks.
All of this suggests that the almost four-tenths gap between Verstappen and Norris may not fully reflect the true difference between McLaren and Red Bull. However, the Hasselt-born driver is in a much better position for the race than anyone would have expected after the free practice sessions. That seems to be the key takeaway.
Max Verstappen Satisfied
The uncertain weather forecast for tomorrow could play into the hands of McLaren’s rivals, acting as a sort of balance of performance. As has been demonstrated on several occasions, Max Verstappen is what’s known as a “rainmaster”—a driver who can extract extraordinary performance from an F1 car in wet conditions. Last season’s Brazilian Grand Prix was a prime example of this.
However, while Interlagos allows for some margin of error—where going off track doesn’t necessarily mean crashing—Melbourne is a semi-street circuit, making a wet race significantly more treacherous. In post-qualifying interviews, Verstappen appeared satisfied with his performance. The four-time world champion admitted he was surprised to have outqualified both Ferrari and Mercedes drivers.
It’s worth noting that Verstappen emphasized that the RB21 does not feel difficult for him to drive, but rather that McLaren’s pace, under normal conditions, is simply on another level. The Dutchman wouldn’t mind heavy rain tomorrow, as it could turn a challenging weekend into yet another memorable race.
The RB21’s Competitive Step
Red Bull has made significant progress since Friday, once again proving how much potential can be unlocked with the right setup. However, as previously mentioned, the RB21 operates within a very narrow performance window—a trait it shares with its predecessor, the RB20. The car is highly dependent on the setup built around it.
On Friday, the transition between understeer and oversteer was very fine, making balance a delicate issue. Generally, the RB21 had more oversteer compared to the McLaren, which managed to control excess rotation much better. This was precisely where Woking’s team gained its competitive advantage, securing a front-row start without much difficulty. Still, Verstappen held his own.
The gap becomes more evident in the third sector, where time losses add up. Specifically, the RB21 loses nearly a tenth and a half in traction out of Turn 11 and another two-tenths in the final corner. The MCL39’s superior traction was a decisive factor. Red Bull still needs to improve in this area, as acceleration phases have traditionally been one of the team’s strengths.
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