The showdown: why Abu Dhabi is a labyrinth for the three contenders
It’s strange how an entire season can come down to an afternoon in the desert. In Abu Dhabi, Lando Norris clearly arrives as the favorite, and the British driver has done everything he needed to, especially in the last three months: consistency, speed, and that extra touch of maturity required to impose himself. He comes to Abu Dhabi ahead of everyone, yes, but not enough to sleep easy, because second in the championship is now Max Verstappen, only 12 points behind.
Norris could become world champion by finishing on the podium
The situation is clear: Norris 408, Verstappen 396, Piastri 392. For the British driver, a podium finish is all that’s needed, which gives him over a 70% chance of winning the championship. A first, second, or third place closes any scenario, whereas finishing fourth opens the door for Verstappen, who would become champion by winning the race. Without a victory, Verstappen’s path is reduced to extreme scenarios: if he finishes second, he would need Norris to finish seventh and Piastri behind him; in third, Norris would need to finish ninth with Piastri not winning.
Oscar Piastri, meanwhile, hangs by an almost theoretical thread: he needs to win, with Norris finishing outside the top six. If he finishes second, he would require his teammate to finish ninth (or worse) and Verstappen fourth. Clearly, a highly complicated scenario, which is why Piastri has very slim chances of taking the championship.
Will Piastri help Norris if needed?
Norris is the clear favorite, Verstappen the perfect hunter (on a track that shouldn’t disadvantage the RB21), but Piastri? Could he become the unintentional judge? McLaren could find itself in a paradox: arriving in Abu Dhabi at the top, with the technical certainty of the MCL39, but without full control of the situation, especially regarding Oscar Piastri. The Woking team has already asked Piastri if he would help Norris. This happened before the Qatar GP, away from the cameras. And Oscar said no, politely but clearly. “Helping Lando? We talked about it and the answer was no,” the Australian confirmed. “I still have a chance to win the title if things go my way, even though I know I’m at a disadvantage and that two perfect weekends won’t be enough.”
A near-certain win for Piastri in Qatar turned into burning frustration due to the pit wall. In Doha, he didn’t feel like anyone’s “second,” especially after finishing 16 points behind his teammate with only 25 points available. So the natural question arises among fans and insiders: will Piastri follow a hypothetical team order in Abu Dhabi to secure the title for Lando Norris? Every team has its nightmares behind closed doors. Woking’s nightmare has a precise form: Verstappen first, Piastri third, Norris fourth. The radio opens: “Oscar, swap positions.” Silence. And a possible “Negative.”
The delicate variables of the championship
In the most sensitive championship in its recent history, this is a variable you clearly cannot afford, especially given the technical potential of the papaya car. Among insiders, there is still the belief that Oscar Piastri would respect a possible team order during the GP. “For us, it’s important to beat Verstappen with one of our two drivers,” Andrea Stella stated, almost admitting that one driver or the other—Piastri more than Norris, at least on paper—will need to step aside if the GP doesn’t go in the right direction.
Will Mercedes and Ferrari want to intervene in the title fight?
Max Verstappen, and even more so Oscar Piastri, will need both Mercedes and Ferrari to be very competitive in Abu Dhabi. The Australian will also need an aggressive race strategy, keeping the pack as tight as possible if he’s leading, to try in every way to win his first title in his third F1 season. However, many wonder if Mercedes and Ferrari will truly want to act as judges of the championship. Some answers may emerge during Thursday’s media day in Abu Dhabi. George Russell had already made his stance clear in Austin: “I expect the championship fight to go to Abu Dhabi. If so, I might be less aggressive unless the GP win is at stake,” said the British driver.
It’s curious how Red Bull might need Mercedes’ competitiveness, four years after what happened between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen, and the two teams precisely at Abu Dhabi. Cynics believe the Anglo-German team will try not to help Max Verstappen win his fifth world title, with the social media chaos against Kimi Antonelli also sparked by a hot team radio from Gianpiero Lambiase and especially the subsequent words of Helmut Marko, which worsened the situation. On the other hand, some believe Christian Horner’s departure has calmed tensions and is a positive development for the four-time Dutch world champion. Then there’s Ferrari, especially Charles Leclerc, who has been a wildcard in the last part of the season—ranging from podiums in Austin and Mexico to the disaster in Qatar—and who should climb the rankings on a more ‘normal’ track like Abu Dhabi, where the 2025 F1 season finale will be decided.
Now all that remains is to watch this showdown. Three drivers within sixteen points, a very strong McLaren (no longer dominant like mid-season) with complex internal dynamics, and Max Verstappen smelling the possibility of a historic achievement. Abu Dhabi will be a race without excuses: whoever has the clarity to seize every opportunity will become champion. Now or never, in this season.
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