McLaren’s major MCL40 upgrade in Hungary appears to have done more than simply add downforce: the new floor restored consistency to the aerodynamic platform and gave the team a convincing development direction for the second half of the 2026 Formula 1 season. Zandvoort will continue that work, but Baku is set to provide the decisive examination of whether the car can also become genuinely competitive when aerodynamic efficiency, braking stability and traction matter more than maximum downforce.
Budapest may therefore have represented a turning point for McLaren, although it is still too early to know for certain. Woking is targeting a development cycle worth around half a second across Hungary, the Netherlands and Azerbaijan. Initial indications from the Hungaroring suggest the new aerodynamic package alone delivered approximately two to three tenths of a second per lap, a substantial improvement even if the overall track performance inevitably also reflected set-up, tyres and power-unit usage.
That Hungary performance is not enough on its own to establish the MCL40 as Formula 1’s new outright benchmark. Andrea Stella has acknowledged that Ferrari still holds an advantage under braking and on entry into slow corners. McLaren, however, extracted considerably more from its own package in Budapest by giving its drivers a more predictable car that was easier to take towards the limit.
McLaren MCL40 floor upgrade delivers more than lap time in Hungary
The most important development introduced in Budapest was the revised floor, accompanied by a modified front brake duct and new aerodynamic profiles towards the rear of the car. The objective was to manage the turbulence generated by the wheels more effectively and create a cleaner, more consistent airflow towards the diffuser.
The MCL40 was already capable of generating significant downforce through medium and high-speed corners, but maintaining that load consistently was more difficult when the car changed direction, developed lateral attitude or encountered variations in wind and track grip. In more technical sequences, the aerodynamic balance could therefore shift quickly, forcing the drivers to make corrections and increasing tyre sliding.
The Hungary package appears to have improved precisely that characteristic. Rather than simply increasing peak downforce, the changes made the car more stable and predictable. That distinction is important because usable downforce is ultimately more valuable than an impressive maximum figure that disappears when the car moves away from its ideal aerodynamic condition.
The drivers can now approach the limit with greater confidence and fewer corrections, while the tyres are loaded more progressively, slide less and accumulate less temperature. The benefits were also visible over longer runs and formed part of the development chain behind McLaren’s Hungary breakthrough.
The MCL40’s relatively short wheelbase helps the car rotate quickly, but can also make the rear more nervous during changes of direction. The latest package will therefore have fully achieved its objective if McLaren can preserve that agility while simultaneously providing a more stable and controllable rear end.
Zandvoort will test the maturity of McLaren’s aerodynamic platform
McLaren will complete the first phase of this work at Zandvoort after bringing forward to Hungary some of the developments originally intended for the Dutch Grand Prix. The Dutch circuit, however, presents a very different examination of the MCL40.
Long corners, banking, elevation changes and wind will all test the stability of the car’s balance and its ability to behave consistently as conditions change. Peak aerodynamic load will not be the only significant measurement. How that load is distributed between the front and rear axles throughout the different phases of a corner will be equally important.
Minimum speed through prolonged loaded corners, lap-to-lap consistency and tyre degradation should therefore provide more meaningful evidence than the simple qualifying gap. The Sprint format will further complicate McLaren’s work because only one free practice session is available before competitive running begins, demanding strong correlation between simulation, wind-tunnel development and the real car.
That limited preparation time will make the Dutch Grand Prix an especially useful examination of whether McLaren now properly understands the MCL40 rather than merely finding an effective set-up at one favourable circuit.
Baku will reveal whether McLaren has solved the MCL40 efficiency puzzle
Zandvoort and Baku will test almost opposite qualities. In the Netherlands, the priority will be stability through long loaded corners and maintaining a consistent balance. Azerbaijan will instead place aerodynamic efficiency, stability under heavy braking, low-speed rotation and traction onto the exceptionally long main straight at the centre of the equation.
McLaren’s development programme that began at the Hungaroring is expected to reach its final stage in Baku. However, the anticipated overall improvement should not be interpreted as half a second directly recovered against Mercedes. Each upgrade works as part of a wider package, and its value changes according to circuit characteristics.
McLaren’s rivals will also continue developing. Mercedes, in particular, has altered its original approach to the W17 and is preparing another major development package for the second half of 2026, although that important step is expected after the Azerbaijan weekend.
At Baku, the McLaren floor will need to generate sufficient downforce without creating excessive drag, while the rear of the car must remain stable through the numerous 90-degree corners. This is also one of the areas where McLaren continues to lose performance relative to Ferrari. If the car does not rotate naturally, the driver has to delay getting back on the throttle, sacrificing some of the advantage gained through straight-line performance.
Power-unit performance will face a much tougher test in Azerbaijan
The power unit will also play an important role. The issues McLaren encountered at Spa did not reappear in Hungary, but Baku will subject the system to a considerably more severe test.
The team will need to establish whether electric deployment can be maintained all the way to the end of the long straight and whether temperatures can remain under control without requiring bodywork openings that impose an excessive aerodynamic penalty.
McLaren has already made significant progress in understanding its Mercedes package, with the team crediting Mercedes HPP’s power-unit work as an important part of its 2026 performance gains. Azerbaijan should provide a much clearer indication of how successfully the complete chassis and power-unit package now works in one of the most demanding efficiency environments on the calendar.
Tyre management could define McLaren’s final races of 2026
Budapest also confirmed that the MCL40 performs particularly well when a circuit keeps the tyres consistently loaded and allows them to remain within the correct temperature window. That does not mean hot conditions automatically favour McLaren. Rather, the car appears capable of exploiting the tyres effectively when their temperatures remain stable.
Cooler races remain more uncertain, particularly at circuits where long straights repeatedly interrupt the energy being put through the tyres. That characteristic could become increasingly important as Formula 1 moves through a diverse sequence of venues during the closing phase of the season.
Sepang and Singapore could reward McLaren’s race-pace management, while Qatar, if it takes place, would provide another examination of the MCL40’s stability through long, fast corners. Monza will pose an entirely different problem. Even with active aerodynamics, bodywork drag, cooling requirements and the efficiency of the transition between corner and straight-line configurations will remain important factors.
Ferrari is also preparing significant developments for that stage of the season, including a planned Monza power-unit gain following its Zandvoort aerodynamic upgrade, adding another variable to the fight at the front.
Why Las Vegas could expose McLaren’s remaining weakness
Las Vegas could prove to be the most difficult event for the MCL40. Low ambient temperatures, long straights and repeated heavy braking zones tend to cool the tyre structure. Under those conditions, sliding can rapidly raise the tread’s surface temperature without adequately heating the carcass, increasing the risk of graining.
A more stable floor and predictable aerodynamic platform can reduce that tendency by helping the driver generate cleaner tyre loads and fewer corrections, but they are unlikely to eliminate the problem entirely.
This is why McLaren’s development objective cannot simply be to produce more downforce. The team needs a wider operating window that works across very different temperatures, corner profiles and tyre-energy demands. Only then can the MCL40 become a consistently competitive package rather than one whose performance varies significantly from circuit to circuit.
The verdict: Baku will determine the scale of McLaren’s turnaround
Budapest provided the first meaningful confirmation that McLaren’s new development direction is working. The aerodynamic package appears to have been worth around two to three tenths of a second per lap, but the more important improvement concerns the quality of that performance: downforce is more stable, the balance is more predictable and the drivers can approach the limit more consistently.
If the developments scheduled through Baku increase the overall improvement to approximately 0.45-0.55 seconds without narrowing the tyres’ operating window, the MCL40 could challenge Mercedes as well as Ferrari for the position of Formula 1’s reference car over a race distance during the second half of the season. McLaren’s Hungary progress has already increased the pressure on Mercedes, whose championship position remains strong but whose advantage is no longer as comfortable as it appeared earlier in the year.
For McLaren to complete that technical leap, however, it must reproduce its gains at circuits and in temperatures very different from Budapest. Zandvoort will examine aerodynamic stability through long loaded corners, while Baku will measure efficiency, braking and traction.
If the MCL40 is competitive in both scenarios, Hungary will no longer look like merely a favourable weekend. It will instead represent the beginning of a genuine shift in the competitive order and evidence that McLaren has found a development direction capable of carrying its challenge through the remainder of the 2026 season.
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