McLaren hunting down Red Bull’s 2023 benchmark
The 2024 season seemed to dispel the fear of championships being decided too early in the year. Back then, the Red Bull-Max Verstappen partnership initially dominated before being challenged by a rapidly rising McLaren team. However, this current 2025 season represents a step backward in that regard, as McLaren has emerged as the dominant squad. While the drivers’ championship remains competitive—a contrast to Red Bull’s clear focus on Max Verstappen in previous years—the Constructors’ Championship has been effectively locked down for some time.
McLaren enters the mid-season break with an impressive tally of 559 points and a sensational lead over Ferrari. The Woking-based team has achieved four consecutive 1-2 finishes this season. Should they secure three more double podiums, they would not only set a new all-time record for consecutive 1-2 finishes (surpassing the five achieved by Mercedes and Ferrari in the past) but would also mathematically clinch the 2025 Constructors’ Championship at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with seven races still left to run. By finishing first and second in Zandvoort, Monza, and Baku, McLaren would reach a total of 688 points, making it impossible for any rival team to catch up (Ferrari could, at best, finish the championship with 687 points).
In the entire history of Formula 1, no team has ever won the Constructors’ Championship with seven Grands Prix still remaining in the season. This dominant McLaren squad could achieve that historic feat. If not, they could still match Red Bull’s 2023 record of securing the Constructors’ title six races early. To do this, they would only need to finish the Singapore Grand Prix with a gap of 304 points to second place—a margin just five points greater than their current lead.
Historically, the Constructors’ Championship has been decided 67 times in Formula 1. In 20% of those occasions (13 times), the title was secured before the fourth-last Grand Prix of the year. Out of those early victories, five occurred under the modern system awarding 25 points for a win. It would be incorrect to blame the current points system for this dominance. In fact, today’s scoring system can be even more rewarding for those finishing behind the leader. Assuming a “standard” race scenario with a 1-2 finish for the strongest team and third and fourth places taken by their closest rival, the second team would earn 63% of the winner’s points (27 compared to 43). Under the older 10-6-4-3-2-1 system, they would have only accumulated 44%.
The real issue lies in the power dynamics on the track. Since the introduction of the hybrid power units, Formula 1 has seen several seasons where, with few exceptions, a single team has demonstrated clear superiority right from the start of the year. This gap has proven nearly impossible to bridge, even with the ban on private testing.
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