Max Verstappen, the reigning Formula 1 World Champion, remains one of the most talked-about drivers in the paddock, even on weekends when he does not win – or, as seen at the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring, does not even finish a single lap. The central question that continues to dominate conversations within Formula 1 circles is simple but significant: will Max Verstappen remain with Red Bull Racing, or will he decide to explore opportunities with other teams in the paddock? And if he does opt to leave, would he really join Mercedes, a team he has been long considered a rival of?
The well-respected German motorsport outlet Auto Motor und Sport recently suggested that Max Verstappen may possess a special contractual clause that could allow him to exit his long-term agreement with Red Bull Racing – which currently runs until the end of the 2028 Formula 1 season – if he finds himself outside the top three positions in the Drivers’ Championship by the end of July 2025.
Currently, the Dutch driver sits in third place in the standings, but his retirement from the Austrian Grand Prix drastically reduced his lead over Mercedes driver George Russell, who is now only nine points behind in fourth place. The idea that Verstappen might be able to walk away from Red Bull under certain circumstances is not entirely new. At the start of the 2023 season, reports circulated that the 1997-born driver had a performance-related exit clause tied to the presence of Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s motorsport advisor. In fact, it was Helmut Marko himself who confirmed in February this year that the contract signed by the four-time world champion includes clauses linked to specific competitive benchmarks.
Verstappen’s evasive answer in the post-qualifying press conference at Spielberg regarding his future only fueled speculation that he may be actively assessing his options and considering whether he should explore the driver market more seriously in the months ahead.
Mercedes Waiting – But Not Indefinitely
Time, however, is running short. It is no secret that Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff is strongly interested in bringing Max Verstappen to Brackley to lead the team’s post-Lewis Hamilton era. Even George Russell – who has had a tense and sometimes combative relationship with Verstappen on track – admitted that it would be unwise for Mercedes not to at least attempt to sign the Dutch driver if the opportunity arises.
Nonetheless, Toto Wolff also publicly emphasized that he does not want to keep both George Russell and promising rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli in contractual limbo for too long. Both drivers are out of contract at the end of the current 2025 season, and Mercedes will need to make firm decisions soon. If there is any real chance of luring Max Verstappen away from Red Bull Racing, that process must begin as early as the start of August – and might ultimately hinge on whether the rumored performance clause becomes active if Verstappen drops to fourth or lower in the standings.
Verstappen’s Condition: Reducing Horner’s Power
According to Auto Motor und Sport, Max Verstappen would not necessarily rule out staying at Red Bull Racing, but he would demand key changes as a condition of his continued commitment. The most delicate and potentially controversial of these conditions would involve reducing the influence of Red Bull Racing team principal Christian Horner.
Tensions between Christian Horner and Jos Verstappen – Max’s father and a powerful voice within his inner circle – have been bubbling under the surface for years. The Verstappen family reportedly wants a more collaborative and decentralized team structure, similar to the highly effective model currently used by McLaren under the leadership of Andrea Stella and Zak Brown. At present, however, Christian Horner maintains full control of Red Bull Racing’s racing operations, technical development, power unit project, and even the marketing strategy, positioning himself as the dominant figure within the organization.
Horner’s comments after the Austrian Grand Prix can also be viewed through this lens. He publicly pointed out that Mercedes finished more than a minute behind McLaren at the Red Bull Ring – a not-so-subtle message to Verstappen that a move to the Silver Arrows might not improve his chances of fighting for future championships compared to what he currently has with Red Bull.
The upcoming Formula 1 races at Silverstone in Great Britain and at Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium may prove pivotal. If Max Verstappen finds himself in fourth place in the Drivers’ Championship after the Belgian Grand Prix, the trigger for the exit clause could be met – potentially reshaping the entire driver market and dramatically altering the competitive balance in Formula 1 for years to come.
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