The final pole position of the season goes to Max Verstappen and Red Bull. Laurent Mekies and his crew managed to overturn the balance seen on Friday, and the Dutchman made no mistakes, securing his eighth pole position of the year. It is a strong start to the title defence for the reigning champion, although McLaren sit right behind him. A brilliant final lap from Lando Norris likely keeps him safe from attacks by George Russell and Charles Leclerc on the opening lap, while Oscar Piastri has slipped further into the role of spectator in a title fight he had dominated up until the Italian Grand Prix. As expected, Mercedes and Ferrari were not able to challenge the papaya-coloured cars over a single lap, and only Russell and Leclerc managed to reach the top ten. The performance gap between the top three and the chasing pair is clear, but it will not be surprising to see Verstappen adopt an aggressive approach tomorrow to disrupt Norris and McLaren.
Further back, the midfield once again proved extremely competitive. Less than two tenths covered the spread from Aston Martin, the fifth-strongest team, to Williams, the ninth-strongest, marking the final qualifying session of the ground-effect generation.
Analysis: Verstappen and Red Bull contain the losses in high-speed support, McLaren lose their grip advantage
The partial tow given by Yuki Tsunoda to Max Verstappen had more visual impact than real effect; the gain can be estimated at only a few hundredths of a second, and car number 1 still improved on his final attempt thanks to an excellent sequence through turns 6 and 7. “I am very, very proud of the team because yesterday we did not have the fastest car and we ended the short runs almost four tenths down. (…) The car was definitely better in qualifying conditions,” said Laurent Mekies. The double pole from Verstappen (the first run alone would have been enough) underlined the RB21’s superiority over a single lap, with a large advantage over the McLarens in the second sector.
Compared with yesterday, the key was limiting the losses in high-speed support, reducing the deficit from several tenths to under one. Red Bull also made a clear step forward in the slow sections — still a major strength of the Milton Keynes machine — where the MCL39 simply could not match them, along with the gains on the straights.
The laps from Norris and Piastri were in line with the potential of the car today; both drivers were extremely close corner by corner, without significant mistakes on their final run. But it still was not enough to threaten a Verstappen who was equally faultless. The two-tenths margin came entirely in the first and second sectors, where the RB21’s top-end speed generated about a tenth and a half of difference. The decisive corner was again the chicane in the middle sector, mastered by the four-time world champion, where he gained more than a tenth on both of his title rivals — mainly under braking, without losing traction on the exit toward the second DRS zone.
Through medium- and high-speed corners, the papaya car was superior, but those areas were not decisive as they had been in Qatar. “Tomorrow we will have a strategic advantage: we have two cars at the front and that will help during the pit stops and with executing an undercut,” said Zak Brown, confident that McLaren can also benefit from the partially divergent objectives of their two drivers. Piastri will be almost forced to win to keep his title hopes alive, while Norris only needs a podium finish.
Laurent Mekies did not give any hints about tomorrow’s strategy and remained very conservative in his comments, avoiding any discussion of potential team games. “We cannot control what happens behind us, so what matters is going into tomorrow’s race with the fastest car possible. This is a circuit where overtaking is possible, so race pace will make the difference,” said the Red Bull Team Principal. McLaren, on the other hand, will prepare for every possible scenario, including a repeat of 2016 that could put both drivers under pressure. “We will think it through carefully. Max is an intelligent driver as well as a fast one, so we will be ready for all the different scenarios,” Brown added.
It goes without saying that the start will be crucial, especially for Verstappen. Track position will be the key to controlling the direction of the race in either sense. And of course, Russell and Leclerc will not simply sit and watch.
Mercedes and Ferrari too far behind, but Verstappen will try to involve Russell and Leclerc from lap one
The competitive order for Mercedes and Ferrari remained unchanged from yesterday’s FP2. Despite his small error — which cost less than a tenth — Russell would not have been able to get close to the McLarens’ times, while Charles Leclerc lacked the pace to reach the second row. As seen on Friday, the W16 had a balanced profile with no major strengths or weaknesses, but it fell short in the third sector, where Verstappen and the two papaya cars benefitted from a far better rear end. That alone explains the gap to the front row.
Russell made a late attempt to secure a tow by explicitly requesting it on the radio so that Red Bull might consider the option. “It was more a suggestion to Red Bull on their pit wall so they could think about it. Max went early in Q3 Run 1, so he was in the right position to do it, and it was obvious they needed someone on track,” said the British driver. But despite the significant performance deficit, tomorrow will not be straightforward. “If we finish the first lap in the same order we started, then certainly Max will not pull away, and he will not hand Lando an easy podium.”
Charles Leclerc will end his season from fifth on the grid, and the SF-25 simply did not have much more to offer. Performance in the slow corners was strong — particularly in the turn 6-7 chicane, where Leclerc was fastest alongside Verstappen — but the losses in high-speed support were too large and highlight a major weakness of the Italian car. Compared with Russell, Ferrari lost two tenths, and this number almost doubled when compared with Norris through turns 1, 9 and 16.
It is also worth noting the sizeable deficit on the straights, where over a tenth and a half was lost to Russell and Verstappen, and even more than half a tenth to the McLarens. Over the final part of the season, Leclerc has consistently paid the price, and today was no exception.
Lewis Hamilton’s mistake in Q1 was enough to eliminate him from the top fifteen despite several encouraging signs earlier in the session. His slightly higher-downforce setup was helping him improve confidence, but tomorrow he will face a recovery drive. With Kimi Antonelli and Hamilton out of podium contention, it will fall to Leclerc and Russell to act as the judges of the World Championship fight between Verstappen, Norris and Piastri.
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