Mercedes left the Azerbaijan Grand Prix with yet another victory, but this time it was not Andrea Kimi Antonelli standing on the top step of the podium. George Russell dominated in Baku, producing a weekend in which he appeared to have something extra virtually every time he took to the track. From practice through qualifying and into the race, the British driver from King’s Lynn imposed a pace whose superiority was far greater than the final winning margin might suggest.
The numbers tell only part of the story. Two Safety Car periods wiped out the advantage George Russell had built on two separate occasions, bunching the field back together when, under normal racing conditions, the rest of the grid might have been left watching another display of the W17’s strength. The final result can therefore be deceptive: Mercedes won by a relatively small margin, but its technical advantage over the rest of the field appeared considerably larger.
Mercedes W17 has won 11 of the first 15 races
No elaborate statistical analysis is required to understand the scale of Mercedes’ dominance. Fifteen Grands Prix have been contested and the team has won 11 of them. The remaining four victories have been shared equally between Ferrari and McLaren. That statistic alone illustrates the shape of a season in which the W17, designed under the technical direction of James Allison, has established itself as the benchmark car of 2026.
The extent of that advantage has already raised questions over just how dominant the Mercedes W17 has become. Baku provided another demonstration, with George Russell controlling the weekend despite the interruptions that ultimately compressed the field.
His performance had already been underlined in qualifying, where George Russell secured a commanding Azerbaijan GP pole position before converting that advantage into victory.
Barring a dramatic turnaround, the Constructors’ Championship increasingly appears to be heading towards Brackley. The more intriguing contest remains the battle within Mercedes for the Drivers’ Championship. Andrea Kimi Antonelli still holds an important advantage after finishing fifth in Baku, but George Russell has no intention of considering the fight over.
George Russell had previously acknowledged the scale of the task when Andrea Kimi Antonelli opened a substantial championship lead. If Mercedes continues to perform at its current level, however, the contest between its two drivers could become the main source of intrigue in a closing phase of the season that might otherwise become increasingly one-sided.
Mercedes is preparing another major W17 development package
The problem for Mercedes’ rivals is that the championship leader does not appear willing to settle for what it has already achieved. Following the Azerbaijan round, Formula 1 will move to Malaysia, where the Bahrain Grand Prix is set to be held in an extraordinary relocation to the historic Sepang circuit because of geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, before the championship then heads to Singapore.
Regardless of the circumstances behind the move, Formula 1’s return to Sepang brings the championship back to a technically fascinating circuit that has been absent from the calendar for too long. Its combination of different corner types and aerodynamic demands should also provide an important test of the next developments arriving on the leading cars.
It is during this stretch of the calendar that Mercedes is expected to introduce an important upgrade package. On the surface, the situation appears almost paradoxical: a team that has won 11 of the opening 15 races has needed to develop the W17 relatively little during the season simply because there was no urgent need to do so.
That position now allows Mercedes to introduce an evolution conceived not only to improve the current car but also with a close eye on 2027. Earlier in the season, Toto Wolff had discussed how Mercedes still had untapped potential in its W17 development programme, and the next package could provide a clearer indication of how much more performance remains available.
W17 development will also influence the Mercedes W18
The situation is also connected to the ATR system. A Mercedes team heading towards the Constructors’ Championship has fewer aerodynamic development hours available than its rivals, making intelligent use of those resources even more important.
The W18 project will be directly influenced by the work carried out on the W17 during these closing stages of the season. What is coming, therefore, is not simply an upgrade intended to improve Mercedes’ 2026 car. It will also serve as a test bed for next season’s single-seater.
That makes the development particularly significant. Mercedes has already established a considerable performance advantage, but its remaining work on the W17 also has implications beyond the current championship. Finding solutions that can transfer effectively into the W18 programme would allow the team to use its restricted development resources for two purposes at once.
Kimi Antonelli on Mercedes upgrades: ‘We didn’t need them’
Against that backdrop, Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s comments after recovering from 16th on the grid to fifth place take on particular significance. Discussing the planned upgrades, the Italian explained that Mercedes naturally hopes to find additional performance, but he also added a detail that should attract the attention of Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren: in Baku, Mercedes simply did not need them.
“We didn’t need them,” Andrea Kimi Antonelli said.
Even more significant was Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s explanation that the upgrades had produced the expected results in the simulator. In other words, a car that is already winning regularly could arrive at the coming races with another increase in performance.
For Mercedes’ rivals, that is the concern. When the championship’s benchmark car finds additional performance rather than merely protecting its existing advantage, closing the gap becomes considerably more difficult.
Mercedes also expects revised power unit with ADUO development token
The aerodynamic package is not expected to arrive alone. Mercedes should also introduce a revised power unit through its ADUO development token, with changes expected to focus primarily on the turbo.
If both the engine evolution and the aerodynamic developments perform as expected, Mercedes could combine two separate areas of improvement into another step forward. The paradox is clear: a team that did not need to become stronger could now become significantly more competitive.
That possibility could undermine some of the progress Mercedes’ rivals have worked to achieve during the season. Red Bull has attempted to reduce the gap, Ferrari has sought to recover ground and McLaren has, at certain stages, appeared capable of at least disrupting Mercedes’ control at the front.
However, the margin demonstrated by the W17 in Baku suggests that the underlying problem has not been solved. Mercedes remains comfortably at the centre of the competitive picture, while its rivals are still searching for the performance required to challenge consistently.
McLaren’s MCL40 faces another important test at Sepang
McLaren is one of the most interesting unknowns heading into Sepang. The MCL40 introduced a new aerodynamic package in Baku which, at least initially, does not appear to have delivered all of the expected benefits.
The Azerbaijan circuit was probably not the ideal venue to assess the package fully, and Malaysia could provide a different picture. Sepang represents a much more complete and aerodynamically demanding test, which should make it easier to understand the true impact of McLaren’s latest developments.
The progress of the McLaren Formula 1 team will therefore be worth monitoring, but even if the MCL40 takes a meaningful step forward, the bigger question will be how large Mercedes’ own improvement proves to be.
That is the uncertainty hanging over the final part of the season. There is a genuine possibility that Mercedes, having already established a huge advantage, could widen the gap further just as the championship moves into its decisive phase.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell remain at centre of title fight
The Constructors’ Championship increasingly appears destined for Brackley. The Drivers’ Championship can still offer a different contest, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli needing to defend his advantage while George Russell continues pushing to reopen a battle that currently remains difficult.
The latest Formula 1 drivers’ championship standings provide the clearest picture of the task facing George Russell and the advantage Andrea Kimi Antonelli must protect as the season enters its closing stages.
But if the W17 converts the performance Mercedes has already seen in the simulator into genuine on-track gains, the internal battle between Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell could increasingly become the defining duel of the championship run-in.
For the rest of the field, the concern is straightforward. Mercedes has spent months appearing to operate at a different competitive level from its rivals, and its next major development package could make an already formidable W17 even more difficult to challenge.
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