Kimi Antonelli chasing rare F1 pattern that usually leads to the world title. F1 | History suggests Antonelli is on title track — but Hamilton and Senna prove otherwise.

In 21 out of 25 cases in Formula 1 history, the driver who has won at least three of the first four races has gone on to become world champion at the end of the season.

84% of titles won

The necessary disclaimer for this article is that it may not be well received by Toto Wolff and, more generally, by fans who are particularly superstitious or not fond of statistics.

With his third consecutive victory of the season, achieved at the Miami Grand Prix and bringing him to three wins in the first four rounds of 2026, Andrea Kimi Antonelli has sent a very strong message to the entire championship and to his teammate George Russell.

Despite being just 19 years old, the talented Italian driver must currently be considered one of the main favourites for the world championship title.

The numbers say so: in Formula 1 history, 25 times a driver has won at least three of the first four Grands Prix, and in 21 of those cases they have gone on to become world champion. That represents an extremely high conversion rate of 84%.

The most recent driver to achieve three wins out of four at the start of a season was Max Verstappen in 2024, and at the end of that year the Red Bull driver was able to celebrate his fourth career title after holding off a strong comeback attempt from Lando Norris.

In short, even with a long season still ahead, the Bologna-born #12 has every reason to dream big.

Hamilton, Senna, Prost and Fittipaldi: famous heartbreaks

However, caution is needed, because the exceptions to this statistical trend are all highly significant.

The last driver to lose a world championship after winning three of the first four races was Lewis Hamilton in 2021, in favour of Max Verstappen, who was crowned champion in the now infamous final race in Abu Dhabi.

But the other similar cases also come from seasons that are deeply embedded in Formula 1 history.

Before Hamilton’s defeat, we have to go back to the late 1980s to find two other drivers who were beaten after a dominant start to the season — and they were no ordinary drivers.

In 1989, Ayrton Senna won three of the first four Grands Prix (specifically the second, third and fourth, just like Antonelli), but the world championship was won by Alain Prost, who only scored his first win of the season in the fifth race.

Senna’s multiple retirements and the unforgettable clash in Suzuka ultimately shifted the championship in favour of “The Professor”.

Twelve months earlier, the opposite had happened: Prost had won three of the first four races, but at the end of the season it was Senna who emerged victorious, also thanks to the “dropped scores” rule, which allowed him to beat his rival despite scoring fewer total points.

The first major example of a title slipping away after a brilliant start, however, belongs to Emerson Fittipaldi, who lost the 1973 World Championship to Jackie Stewart despite winning three of the first four Grands Prix.

Those three victories remained Fittipaldi’s only wins of the entire season, while the Scottish champion — who had won the third round in South Africa — went on to secure four more victories that year.

In earlier eras, when championships had 16 or 17 races, winning at least three of the first four rounds carried even more weight in the points battle. However, it is also important to remember that 25 to 30 years ago reliability was far more fragile than it is today, and even the fastest cars could suffer multiple consecutive retirements — something much less common in modern Formula 1.

Kimi Antonelli, in any case, is fully entitled to do all the superstitious rituals he knows.

The historical precedent of an 84% title conversion rate puts Andrea Kimi Antonelli in a position of immense mathematical strength, yet the names on the list of “beaten” legends serve as a stark warning. While the modern reliability of the Mercedes W17 makes a Senna-style collapse less likely, the psychological battle remains the ultimate variable. As the 2026 season progresses, the challenge for the young Italian will be to maintain his clinical edge and avoid becoming the fifth illustrious exception in a sport that rarely offers guarantees.