Juan Pablo Montoya believes Mercedes could wait until the Madrid Grand Prix to introduce its next major Formula 1 upgrade package, despite growing pressure from McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull. The former F1 driver expects Mercedes to face a difficult weekend at Zandvoort, while arguing that the characteristics of Monza would make a major update less necessary there.
Mercedes has so far avoided matching the frequency of upgrades introduced by some of its main rivals, yet it remains firmly at the centre of the 2026 championship fight. According to Juan Pablo Montoya, that position gives the team the luxury of deciding carefully when to deploy its remaining developments while also beginning to direct more resources towards its 2027 car.
McLaren increases pressure on Mercedes in 2026 F1 upgrade race
The Hungarian Grand Prix delivered the first victory of the season for Lando Norris and McLaren just before the summer break. The Woking team began the campaign approximately three months behind its rivals in terms of the maturity of its project, but it has gradually recovered ground and emerged as an increasingly serious threat to Mercedes.
McLaren introduced the first part of an upgrade package in Hungary, with further elements due to arrive at Zandvoort before the development is completed at Baku. The scale of the McLaren MCL40 upgrade in Hungary also caught the attention of Mercedes, adding another dimension to the development battle heading into the second half of the season.
From the Azerbaijan Grand Prix onwards, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are therefore expected to have the MCL40 in what should effectively be its definitive 2026 specification. McLaren hopes that will give its drivers the opportunity to reproduce the type of late-season pursuit mounted by Max Verstappen in 2025 as they attempt to close the gap to Drivers’ Championship leader Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
Lando Norris’ breakthrough victory at the Hungaroring confirmed McLaren’s progress, with the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix classification underlining how the competitive picture changed immediately before the summer shutdown. Andrea Kimi Antonelli nevertheless continues to lead the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship.
Mercedes prepares for another major upgrade package
Mercedes introduced what has so far been its most significant package of new parts at the Canadian Grand Prix. A second and potentially final major round of upgrades is expected as the team looks to strengthen its position in the fight for the world championships available this season.
The timing of that development could prove crucial. Mercedes must respond to the progress being made by McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull without unnecessarily accelerating its programme and sacrificing resources that could instead be devoted to 2027. The team has already stressed the importance of getting the key decisions right as it attempts to protect its position in the 2026 F1 title fight.
Juan Pablo Montoya predicts Mercedes F1 upgrades could arrive in Madrid
Juan Pablo Montoya expects Mercedes to introduce the package at the Madrid Grand Prix, which follows the rounds at Zandvoort and Monza.
“Mercedes has not yet introduced any major upgrades, while all the other teams have, and yet it is still more than competitive,” Juan Pablo Montoya told Betpack. “If you keep that fact in mind, its rivals should be worried. The longer Mercedes can ‘delay’ these new developments, the more resources and budget it can allocate to next year’s car.”
Juan Pablo Montoya expects the first race after the summer break to provide a particularly demanding examination of the championship leaders. Zandvoort’s characteristics could favour several of Mercedes’ rivals, while Max Verstappen will also have the additional motivation of competing in his home Grand Prix.
“At Zandvoort we will see a really, really fast McLaren, a fairly competitive Red Bull, especially with Max, who will want to prove his worth at his home Grand Prix. We will see a really strong Ferrari, so the standings are becoming very close, almost too close for Mercedes’ liking. The only way Mercedes can come out on top is by introducing its major upgrades.”
The Dutch Grand Prix will therefore offer Mercedes an important reference point before it decides how urgently it needs to respond. Zandvoort is the first event after the summer break, with the full 2026 Dutch Grand Prix schedule also featuring the Sprint format.
Why Montoya believes Monza may not justify the Mercedes upgrade
Juan Pablo Montoya believes Mercedes still holds an important strategic advantage because its rivals have already revealed much of what they intend to use during the remainder of the season. If Mercedes can wait before introducing its next package, the Colombian expects it to retain greater development potential when the new parts finally reach the track.
“Everyone has shown their cards from now until the end of the season. So when Mercedes introduces its next package, I think it will be even further ahead of everyone,” Juan Pablo Montoya added. “Mercedes has the cards and the aces in its hands.”
Although Zandvoort might appear to be an obvious venue for an immediate response, Juan Pablo Montoya believes the following race at Monza changes the calculation. The Italian circuit would not necessarily require the same type of developments, making Madrid a potentially more logical point at which Mercedes could introduce its next major changes.
“Zandvoort would be a good place for Mercedes to introduce its upgrades, but looking at the bigger picture, you then go to Monza, and you don’t need them there. They need to understand whether they need them for Madrid. My guess is that Madrid is where we will see Mercedes make changes. They will want to see how they perform at Zandvoort, which will not be an easy race for them.”
With McLaren continuing to develop the MCL40, Ferrari closing the gap and Red Bull still searching for more performance from the RB22, Mercedes’ next move could become one of the defining technical decisions of the second half of the 2026 season. For now, however, Juan Pablo Montoya’s Madrid prediction remains an assessment of how Mercedes could manage its upgrade programme rather than confirmation of the team’s plans.
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