In Qatar, McLaren lacked the pace to recover from a strategic blunder. Max Verstappen seized the opportunity, thanks to a Red Bull team with seemingly endless resources.
Against all predictions made in the summer, Max Verstappen managed to keep the Drivers’ Championship alive until the final race. He did so by winning a race in Qatar that was initially lost by McLaren, despite the team having the fastest car at Lusail. Yet, their pace was not enough to compensate for questionable strategic decisions. Ferrari, meanwhile, suffered from setup choices, technical limitations, and an extremely early halt to car development.
McLaren own goal
The defining moment of the weekend was McLaren’s decision not to take advantage of the Safety Car on lap seven to complete the first of the two mandatory pit stops. This choice raised doubts on several levels, primarily because it compromised the team’s chances of winning the Grand Prix. “The others lost all flexibility,” engineer Will Joseph told a skeptical Lando Norris. But if flexibility means reacting to the unexpected, it is hard to understand why McLaren did not exploit the ultimate unpredictability, the Safety Car, especially with two compulsory pit stops. Likely, the decision was influenced by the team’s desire to treat both drivers equally—a strategy that became self-sabotaging when competing against an external rival. Prioritizing coverage on Max Verstappen with Lando Norris first, and then deciding the plan for Oscar Piastri, could have allowed time for two consecutive pit stops.
But this did not happen, and McLaren wasted a crucial opportunity. In Qatar, the papaya car was clearly the fastest on track, yet in the race it did not run a fast enough pace to overcome the strategic error. While Verstappen’s times on the medium tires consistently dropped, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri’s, though slightly better on average, increased. This was not the result of a conservative ride height setup after the Las Vegas disqualification, which the team blamed on the car being too high and consequently in a porpoising window. In Qatar, the MCL39 instead suffered from chronic mechanical wear on the front tires, unable to fully exploit its potential in thermal degradation management, which was negligible for all cars. Combined with Norris not being in peak form, McLaren will now have to fight hard for the championship in Abu Dhabi.
Verstappen shines again
Max Verstappen wasted no time capitalizing on the McLaren duo’s hesitation. Credit goes to the Red Bull team, who, after a challenging start to the weekend, positioned themselves to seize the opportunity. The Milton Keynes squad took advantage of the parc fermé reopening after the Sprint to adjust the setup, mitigating the bouncing that Max had criticized on Friday. Red Bull continues to demonstrate that they need track mileage and data to fine-tune their car, and Abu Dhabi will offer three practice sessions to do so. Verstappen will carry psychological momentum into the final race, confident that he has already performed a remarkable feat by taking the championship battle to the last event.
The story is not much different for Carlos Sainz, who also showed readiness at Lusail whenever opportunities arose. The Spaniard secured a second extraordinary podium for Williams, which also celebrated mathematically clinching fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship. A result that would have been unimaginable for the Grove team just a few years ago, their growth on track and in the factory positions them as a future McLaren contender, on a trajectory to consistently fight for top positions in the coming years. Up front, Kimi Antonelli’s final-lap error, which cost him the position to Norris, does not overshadow a solid overall performance.
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