A timely comeback is needed
In recent days, we have discussed at length the various technical reasons why the papaya-colored cars seem to be experiencing a drop in performance. On the other hand, McLaren has not won a race since late August, when Oscar Piastri crossed the line first, followed by reigning world champion Max Verstappen. This is an unusual scenario considering the first two-thirds of the season.
As known, the development campaign for the MCL39 has now concluded, with available resources dedicated to next season. Perhaps a bold move, based on the fact that the drivers’ championship had become an internal affair, contested only between Oscar and Lando. Yet Max has not given an inch: the Dutchman, together with Red Bull, has pushed hard, closing the gap dangerously.
The historic British team is therefore called upon to maximize results in the remaining five weekends (including two Sprint Races) with the materials currently available. Last year, the best of the two Woking cars finished behind Carlos Sainz, a clear signal that the Mexico track was not particularly favorable in terms of adaptation.
McLaren: maximizing high-speed corners
From a layout perspective, the circuit presents areas with very diverse characteristics. The wide range of cornering speeds requires a compromise in setup that the MCL39 should, at least on paper, be able to handle effectively. In recent races, the British team has often matched Red Bull, or even outperformed it, though not always fully exploiting the car’s potential.
The issue lies in optimizing the car at critical moments. Compared to last season, adaptation to the track should be easier this time, as the British car can now reach higher top speeds. This is a significant difference from the previous season when disparities in this area penalized performance across various teams.
In the second sector, another strength of the world champions is expected to emerge: excellent balance at high speed, just the factor feared by Ferrari. The MCL39 has a high level of aerodynamic downforce, a feature it shares with the RB21. It is therefore easy to predict that Mexico will witness a direct showdown between the two teams.
The challenge lies in optimizing the setup. Competition is becoming increasingly tight, and every small detail will be decisive. Analyzing the intrinsic qualities of the British car, the main strength is its low thermal degradation, a significant advantage, though it was even more relevant in the early part of the 2025 season.
MCL39: tire advantage that cannot be exploited
According to Pirelli, which is still proposing the same tire step for the Mexico GP, the teams have reached a remarkable level of skill in managing tire consumption, to the point that many races now see minimal wear. This weekend should be no different, based on last year’s data.
High tire degradation will not play a role, and careful tire management over the 300-kilometer race distance should not be required. This element potentially favors Red Bull, as tire management has been a key differentiator in head-to-head comparisons with McLaren during the early part of the season.
There is also the possibility of graining, a phenomenon that Woking fears greatly. At the previous event in Austin, this issue was frequently raised during the race, due to concerns that the setup could lead to overheating of the rear axle. The team struggled in this area and faced notable challenges.
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