Ahead of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, one of the buzzwords expected to define the weekend was graining. This occurs when tyres are stressed before entering the optimal operating window, or when ambient temperatures are too low for proper functioning.
Yet, the opposite occurred for Mercedes: no graining, but rather… blistering. An anomaly rarely mentioned since F1 began racing in Saudi Arabia, as Jeddah’s excellent asphalt has always provided strong grip, typically shifting the challenge toward graining.
In this case, it could be said Mercedes literally “cooked” the tyres, struggling with thermal degradation. This wasn’t so much a case of pure accelerated wear but poor temperature management—the same issue that had raised concerns for Max Verstappen during Friday’s long runs.
Looking back, both in free practice and qualifying, it was noted that when allowed to cool, the tyres could recover performance. This was evident even with the soft compound, where two or more flying laps could be done without significant drop-off.
However, in the race, there’s no opportunity to slow down and let the tyres breathe, which causes temperatures to rise uncontrollably, triggering a chain reaction: reduced grip, increased sliding, and further overheating. While Ferrari managed the situation perfectly—pushing hard at the end of the first stint and surprising rivals—Mercedes, by contrast, “cooked” their tyres.
It was an unexpected situation, especially as the W16 had previously shown good thermal control, such as in Bahrain, where the team completed the final stint on softs—a strategy Ferrari considered unfeasible.
Mercedes had even identified Sakhir as a benchmark to evaluate whether their temperature management issues from last year, which often plagued the W15 on hotter tracks, had been resolved—and the signs were encouraging.
This helped create a climate of confidence heading into Saudi Arabia, despite Pirelli bringing tyres one step softer, aiming to increase tyre management demands and add strategic variability.
On paper, Jeddah should have suited the W16, which has shown strength in medium-high speed corners early this season, struggling slightly more in slow sections. Thus, it was no surprise the team looked competitive in qualifying—if not for the final hairpin, Russell might have taken pole.
But from the first laps, it was clear Russell struggled to keep up with the leaders, quickly dropping out of DRS range behind Piastri and out of the dirty air. It’s unrealistic to think he was affected by the same issue as Oscar Piastri, who, trying to stay close to Verstappen early on, overworked his tyres and had to pit early.
Race data shows a vicious cycle: rising temperatures in Russell’s W16 led to increasingly reduced grip, especially in the medium-high speed corners of Sector 2, which had been Mercedes’ strength on Saturday.
“For some reason we generated more heat than our rivals. Suddenly you reach a point where the tyres feel like balloons. We had blistering on the front, a blister on the rear, and then suddenly there’s no grip left,” said Russell after the race.
Indeed, telemetry data towards the end of the stint shows stark differences compared to race leaders—with speed deficits of up to 20 km/h in sections where, on fresh tyres in qualifying, the W16 had matched its rivals. Even in areas where Mercedes had gained on Saturday, like the long Turn 13 or the rapid chicanes at Turns 16/17 and 22/23, the team could no longer capitalise, losing valuable tenths.
“All of a sudden the tyres overheated too much. From there, everything collapsed—in the last seven or eight laps I was losing a second per lap. Fifth place is what we deserved today, but overall the performance was quite disappointing,” added the Briton, noting that the lack of consistent long runs in free practice—due to interruptions—may have caught the team off guard.
Interestingly, there was a stark contrast in tyre behaviour between the two Mercedes drivers: while Russell suffered degradation over the stint, Andrea Kimi Antonelli posted his best sectors toward the end, running just tenths off Charles Leclerc’s pace.
The issue is that the Italian had sacrificed much of the second stint’s first half, at times lapping 7 to 8 tenths slower than his teammate. Unsurprisingly, the gap between Russell and Antonelli narrowed only in the final laps, when the Briton’s tyres completely dropped off, shrinking the gap by just a couple of seconds compared to what it had been pre-pit stop.
“The weekend looked promising, but we didn’t get long-run laps in practice, so I guess we didn’t realise we might not have strong race pace or didn’t identify the potential issues,” added Russell.
“It’s interesting—we didn’t expect to go so well in Bahrain, and we thought we’d be stronger here, but it turned out exactly the opposite. That’s the nature of this sport, and everyone’s working hard to find more performance.”
Based on initial data, Mercedes still hasn’t found an explanation for the race struggles, but Toto Wolff emphasised that Jeddah was Mercedes’ worst performance of the year. “No, we don’t have an answer. This was definitely our worst performance of the season. The pace wasn’t there, and we had overheating and blistering issues with the tyres, but no explanation yet.”
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