Formula 1 is not as straightforward a sport as one might expect, especially with this very “temperamental” generation of cars. So it’s not surprising that in Suzuka, the best car didn’t take pole position and, more importantly, didn’t win the race. Max Verstappen beat both McLarens, ruining what could have been, just like in Australia, an easy one-two finish for the Woking-based team when analysing the MCL39’s potential compared to its rivals.
In Suzuka, zero tyre degradation and cool temperatures favoured Max Verstappen’s RB21.
It didn’t take the Japanese Grand Prix to confirm that the RB21 is still not on par with McLaren’s car. However, under certain conditions and when driven by Max Verstappen, the Anglo-Austrian team’s car becomes much less problematic than it might seem. According to rivals, the McLaren MCL39’s secret lies in tyre management. However, it struggles more with performance in cases of front-end graining, as seen in the Chinese GP Sprint race – an issue carried over from last year – and in qualifying compared to race pace. Conversely, the tougher the tyre conditions, the stronger the papaya-coloured car performs compared to competitors. This was only partially evident in Australia between qualifying (third sector) and the race (intermediate tyre management), and certainly not in China, due to a very conservative one-stop strategy, or in Japan, where tyre wear was practically nonexistent.
On the flip side, teams like Red Bull find more performance when tyre management isn’t such a critical factor. So it’s no surprise that the Verstappen-RB21 pairing pulled off a coup in Suzuka, especially after the Dutchman secured pole – vital at Suzuka, the third most important track in terms of qualifying position. However, McLaren remains ahead of the pack by a margin; even under less-than-ideal conditions, it still held a couple of tenths’ advantage over Verstappen’s Red Bull, according to one rival. “I don’t think we’ve seen the real McLaren yet. We’ve raced three cold weekends. When we go to Bahrain with 35 degrees or even Saudi Arabia, that’s when they’ll really shine, so we have to stay grounded,” George Russell said after the Suzuka race.
Did McLaren’s strategy reflect a desire to preserve internal harmony? They had a chance to try an overcut with Norris, but…
With his win, Max Verstappen is now just one point behind championship leader Norris. This is surprising given the technical superiority shown at times by the MCL39, which could resurface in Bahrain if tyre wear becomes a major factor. Still, it’s clear that the Woking team hasn’t fully maximised its results in the opening three races of the season, considering Oscar Piastri’s mistake in Australia, which dropped him to ninth, and a rather conservative strategy employed in the Japanese GP just hours ago. It was clear that overtaking on track at Suzuka, with similar tyre conditions, was virtually impossible – requiring around a one-second pace advantage. Nevertheless, McLaren didn’t want to play the two-against-one strategy against Max Verstappen, which became even more important with Leclerc and Russell trailing far behind.
It was expected that one of the McLarens would attempt an undercut on Max Verstappen during the only stop anticipated by most teams, forcing the Dutchman to pit and giving the second papaya car the opportunity for a longer stint and a potential overcut or at least creating a tyre delta that might have opened up overtaking opportunities in the final part of the race. The latter option quickly emerged as the stronger one, even though McLaren could have tried it with Lando Norris, who was closest to Verstappen. “I think the problem for Lando would have been that he would’ve lost positions to other cars, including Oscar. Because they had already pitted and were faster, and if you stay out for 20 laps on mediums, you can’t be faster than someone who’s switched to hards,” explained Andrea Stella after the race regarding Norris’ longer first stint. However, that’s not entirely accurate, as Norris may have lost position to Oscar Piastri – and that’s the real issue – but was very unlikely to be overtaken by Charles Leclerc, even with ten more laps on the first stint. They could’ve tried what Mercedes did with Kimi Antonelli, who managed to keep a half-second pace advantage over his teammate in the second part of the race thanks to fresher tyres, finishing right behind him. The reality, which Andrea Stella will never admit, is that McLaren is still in a phase of protecting internal balance, knowing it cannot yet support one of the two drivers in a bid to win. That’s why there was no swap between Norris and Piastri to allow the latter to challenge Verstappen. The team’s current priority is scoring points mainly for the Constructors’ Championship, always Woking’s number one goal.
Leave a Reply