What frame of mind will Max Verstappen be in when he arrives at Spa-Francorchamps, the circuit he loves most and one he also considers his home track? The Dutch driver heads into the Belgian Grand Prix after two major incidents caused by mechanical failures. Both during qualifying in Austria and in the closing stages of the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, the four-time Formula 1 world champion crashed after the rear wing’s active aerodynamic system failed to close properly.
Is it easier for a driver to forget a personal driving mistake or a mechanical failure? That question was put to Riccardo Ceccarelli, founder of Formula Medicine and one of motorsport’s best-known mental performance coaches.
“These were two very unfortunate incidents, but I don’t think Max Verstappen will arrive at Spa-Francorchamps with those episodes on his mind. He will certainly have demanded guarantees from Red Bull that such failures cannot happen again, so I expect him to arrive in Belgium with a clear mind. However, if we look at the bigger picture, apart from his early years at Toro Rosso, this is the first season in which the Dutchman has virtually no chance of winning a Grand Prix with Red Bull.”
“Last year there was still the fight for the world championship, which was eventually won by Lando Norris by just two points. Even though the comeback seemed almost impossible, Max Verstappen kept believing and found extra motivation to stay at the front. We even saw him smiling after defeats, but for someone like Max, not being one of the main protagonists is extremely frustrating. Beyond the mechanical reliability issues, I believe confidence in the team is beginning to decline. Unless Red Bull starts showing a clear upward trend and tangible improvements, the team’s credibility in Max Verstappen’s eyes will inevitably suffer.”
The two incidents caused by the rear wing failing to close correctly are therefore only making an already difficult situation even worse.
“Max Verstappen will have demanded firm guarantees from the team, even if that means returning to a more conventional rear wing design. But someone with his winning mentality will inevitably begin looking around. He may be prepared to wait and see whether the team reacts, but if that response does not come, he will make his own decisions.”
For now, the door to Mercedes appears to have closed completely, with George Russell expected to remain at Brackley, while Oscar Piastri’s manager, Mark Webber, has also stated that the Australian will continue with McLaren.
“It is possible that Max Verstappen is creating internal pressure within Red Bull in an attempt to trigger a reaction. On paper, the driver market appears closed, but I struggle to believe that one of Formula 1’s biggest stars will remain outside the fight for victories for very long. Either Milton Keynes finds a way to recover competitively, or we will eventually see significant changes, regardless of contractual obligations. Formula 1 has always been driven by powerful interests, whether sporting, commercial, media-related or involving sponsors, and very often solutions are found that ultimately satisfy everyone.”
Red Bull has now slipped to fourth among Formula 1’s leading teams. The decline in competitiveness has coincided with the departure of several key figures, and the next to leave will reportedly be long-serving head of track engineering Paul Monaghan, with race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase also expected to follow.
“We are likely to see more transfer rumours emerge as a way of increasing pressure because Max Verstappen’s entourage will not simply stand by. I cannot imagine him accepting two anonymous seasons while waiting for his contract to expire. Red Bull has surprised us before with its ability to respond quickly despite losing important personnel. However, Max Verstappen will certainly feel the absence of Gianpiero Lambiase. The two have developed an exceptional working relationship. Lambiase is calm, thoughtful and capable of standing up to Max when necessary. For a driver with such a strong personality, having an engineer who knows how to manage him is incredibly important.”
Another key question is whether Max Verstappen is also working behind the scenes in Milton Keynes to encourage wider changes within the organisation. Reports suggest that Mark Mateschitz wants to take on a more influential decision-making role inside the team.
“It is obvious that Red Bull has been in a constant state of transition since the passing of Dietrich Mateschitz. The team has experienced continuous upheaval, not only technically but also from a management perspective. Adrian Newey, Christian Horner and Helmut Marko have all departed, to name only the biggest figures. We know that whenever a Formula 1 team undergoes so many structural changes, instability follows. During that kind of transition period, major results rarely arrive.”
“When rebuilding a Formula 1 team, you have to think in terms of a three-year programme. Red Bull did an impressive job by producing a competitive power unit immediately after the regulation changes, once again demonstrating its ability to respond to new technical challenges. However, the feeling is that the team’s recent positive performances have depended more on Max Verstappen’s extraordinary talent than on the overall potential of the car itself. It will be fascinating to see what Max Verstappen decides to do next because I simply cannot imagine him remaining in a holding pattern for very long.”
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