If you scroll through the top 10 standings in Monaco, one major name is missing: for the first time this season, Mercedes finished outside the points with both cars. The weekend in the Principality proved to be cursed for the Silver Arrows, never a real contender in free practice and, most importantly, forced to give up in qualifying due to a crash and a technical issue that took both cars out of contention.
From Friday onward, the W16 struggled to generate grip from the tyres—an essential factor on a track like Monte Carlo, where grid position plays a decisive role in the final result. More specifically, the W16 suffered particularly from understeer in the slower corners, making it difficult to find the necessary front-end precision.
A heavy blow, especially considering that throughout the season Mercedes often built its best results by excelling in qualifying. Only by overturning the setup after FP3 and reverting to more proven solutions did George Russell seem to find a promising direction—on a weekend where he had already dismissed the new upgrades brought to Imola, including the new rear suspension.
George Russell felt more comfortable in qualifying compared to earlier sessions, even hinting that he might have been able to fight for the second row. Words that would never be confirmed, due to the technical failure that eliminated him in Q2, compounded by Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s crash at the end of Q1.
Mercedes surprised by choosing the “classic” strategy
For this reason too, starting from the seventh and eighth rows, no strategy could have saved Mercedes’ Grand Prix, which was effectively caught between a rock and a hard place. One of the ideas circulating before the race was that the team might try something aggressive—pitting at least one car at the end of the first lap to immediately clear one of the two mandatory stops, then reacting to the race developments.
At that point, two scenarios could have played out: either extending the second stint as long as possible in hopes of a Safety Car, or pitting again fairly early to complete the two-stop requirement—mirroring the strategy Haas used with Oliver Bearman. The idea was that catching back up with the pack would be relatively easy, considering the slowed race pace.
“We had a pretty interesting discussion about strategy, and I said: well, let’s do it. Let’s pit early, go back out, and recover. That’s what we used to do in DTM back in the day, and it was fantastic,” said Toto Wolff after the race.
“You pitted, you were last, and you won. But the smarter people in our strategy group explained to me that here in Monaco, that wouldn’t work. It was the best strategy on paper, but as you can see from those who did pit early—it changed nothing. We wouldn’t have scored points.”
It was widely believed that Mercedes would be among the teams to gamble on an early stop, which is why Red Bull immediately covered itself by pitting Yuki Tsunoda—who started on softs behind the Williams cars—to get the stop out of the way. In reality, even if Mercedes had split its internal strategies, it would have still ended up behind Tsunoda, limiting any chance of a comeback.
Something that Mercedes likely foresaw. That’s why the strategists opted for a different approach, leaning on the classic Monaco tactic: stretching the stint as much as possible, hoping to run in clean air at their own pace or benefit from a Safety Car or red flag that could flip a seemingly predetermined race.
A tactic that, however, was never going to work based on how the race evolved. With Racing Bulls and Williams dictating a slow pace to build a gap and allow their teammates to pit without losing position, there was no way to gain an advantage from a race neutralization.
Even by cutting the chicane, the points were out of reach
There’s also a paradoxical aspect: the best opportunity arose… by breaking the rules, when Russell, tired of being stuck in the train, overtook Albon by cutting the chicane after the tunnel—earning a Drive Through. A heavy penalty, but one the stewards had warned about at the start of the weekend to prevent constant corner-cutting. But let’s imagine, for argument’s sake, that the shortcut had happened earlier.
In that case, two scenarios could have emerged: either Williams would have had to sacrifice Sainz to secure points for Albon—further slowing down the group, as eventually happened but with reversed roles—or push with both drivers, risking exposure to those who had already stopped earlier, like Yuki Tsunoda and Oliver Bearman. Moreover, Williams could have simply picked up the pace to deny Russell the pit window, since the penalty must be served within three laps.
And that’s probably where Antonelli would have come into play, used as a “cork,” as he eventually was in the second part of the race, to allow Russell to serve the Drive Through. But if Russell had returned to the pits without losing too much time, Sainz would also have had a chance to stop—if he had taken advantage of the slowdown imposed by Antonelli to push.
At that point, Mercedes would have found itself right back where it started—with no way out of a strategic puzzle that still wouldn’t have yielded points. A disappointing result, but beyond the outcome itself, after two underwhelming weekends and doubts surrounding technical solutions, Spain could prove to be a turning point for their season.
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