In Miami it is time to focus on the Sprint. Tonight at 18:00 local time, the mini-race will start and will award the first points of the weekend to the drivers finishing inside the top eight. The extended free practice session held yesterday, with an additional 30 minutes of running compared to a standard weekend, has allowed for deeper analysis compared to a normal race weekend affected by the Sprint format.
On Friday, teams and drivers were able to complete multiple laps with heavy fuel loads in order to better understand tyre behaviour and degradation. If we again face the same conditions seen yesterday, with track temperatures exceeding 45°C, the tyre choice is expected to be fairly standard across the grid. Most teams will likely opt for a used set of Medium C4 tyres. Initial forecasts had suggested rain for Sunday’s Grand Prix, but there remains a possibility that the weather could still change, and updates will follow on that front. For now, the possibility of heavy rain remains on the table.
Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar demonstrated that the yellow compound can comfortably last for more than 20 laps, and considering that the Sprint race is only 19 laps long, it is fair to say that a used set of Medium tyres should be sufficient to complete the race successfully (see our race pace analysis for more details). All drivers have at least one set available.
Making this strategic choice would allow teams to preserve a new Hard tyre set, the two new Medium sets that most top teams still have available, and all four Soft sets (in the case of top teams) for tonight’s qualifying session. The picture described above reflects the tyre allocation situation for McLaren, Ferrari, and George Russell’s Mercedes.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli has inadvertently picked up a wildcard advantage
Andrea Kimi Antonelli and both Red Bulls have hidden strategic advantages. Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar only have one fresh Medium set, but they head into the race with one new Hard set and one used Hard set, placing them in a favourable position for tomorrow’s Grand Prix, although that topic will be discussed separately.
The Italian driver and current championship leader Andrea Kimi Antonelli, however, has five new sets of Soft C5 tyres available. A battery issue in Free Practice 1 allowed him to save one set compared to his rivals, effectively giving him an additional strategic option.
This will certainly place him in a strong position for Q3 this evening. Unlike the others, he has an extra “weapon” to deploy when needed. However, he could also choose to use it during the Sprint race itself, but starting from second position on the grid, it is unlikely that he will take such a risk.
Track temperatures above 45°C are generally too high for the C5 compound. However, if conditions were to drop slightly… At the moment, using the C5 in the Sprint race appears to be a fairly risky decision, but if the conditions are right, it cannot be ruled out entirely. It would also represent an excellent real-world test for the compound under race pressure.
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