Mercedes seems poised to be a favorite for the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship, but Toto Wolff is not willing to make predictions. Here’s what the Austrian team principal had to say.
The F1 season has just wrapped up with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, yet Mercedes is already looking ahead to 2026. The upcoming season will be a critical juncture for the entire paddock, with a major regulatory overhaul reshaping aerodynamics, chassis, and power units. For this reason, Toto Wolff admitted how complex it is to evaluate the preparation level of rival teams for the new era. The Brackley team principal explained that current sensations are very different compared to those experienced on the eve of 2014, the season that marked the start of an unprecedented dominance for the Anglo-German squad.
An unprecedented regulatory change
Mercedes has already faced two major technical revolutions in its recent history. In 2014, the team successfully interpreted the new hybrid regulations, while in 2022, a change in aerodynamic philosophy caught the team unprepared, leading to a technically challenging period. The 2026 season represents yet another challenge: the new rules will introduce active aerodynamics on front and rear wings, more compact cars, and power units based on a 50:50 balance between internal combustion and electric energy. A radically different context makes any comparison with the past extremely difficult.
Toto Wolff himself emphasized that the team’s current climate is far from what preceded 2014. “Coming into 2014, I already had a rather positive feeling during the winter, when we were the first to run the complete car on the dyno,” he explained.
“The engine was more reliable than it appeared compared to the others. And obviously, on the first day of testing, no one else was able to complete laps, but we did. The same happened on the second day.” According to Wolff, the comparison today does not hold: “So I would say it’s not comparable. Moreover, the grid is simply much more competitive than in previous years.”
Mercedes F1 2026 preparation: clear objectives but many unknowns
Despite the uncertainty, Wolff reiterated that Mercedes has set clear objectives in its path toward 2026. The problem, however, is understanding whether these targets are ambitious enough. “It’s extremely difficult to make predictions, because we have set goals that, at the moment, we are on track to achieve,” the team principal stated.
“But whether those goals have been set with sufficient ambition and whether they have been properly prioritized, only the future will tell.” This uncertainty is shared by much of the paddock, made even more evident by the extreme competitiveness of modern Formula 1, where the gaps between top teams have significantly narrowed compared to the past.
Despite the team’s maximum effort, Toto Wolff preferred to maintain a cautious profile, avoiding any prediction about Mercedes’ performance at the debut of the new regulations. “Everything that is within our capabilities” will be done, according to the team principal, to field a competitive car and power unit. However, the experience of 2022 has taught how risky it is to make predictions too early.
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